What we know about central Nigeria's surge in violence

A mother watches a child suffering malnutrition undergoing intensive care in a clinic set up by health authorities in collaboraion with Medecins Sans Frontieres or Doctors Without Borders (MSF) in Katsina State, northwest Nigeria, on July 20, 2022. [AFP] Attacks in Nigeria's troubled north-central state of Plateau have killed more than more than 100 people in just under two weeks. Plateau, on the dividing line between Nigeria's mostly Muslim north and predominantly Christian south, has historically been a flashpoint for intercommunal violence. Analysts say the situation in the region -- the so-called Middle Belt -- is complex. Here is what we know about the recent surge in violence. What has happened? At least 104 people have been killed across multiple rural villages in 10 days -- 52 each in two districts, with one of the raids striking just 25 kilometres (15 miles) from the state capital Jos. Such attacks claiming dozens of lives are not new in the landlocked state. In one of the deadliest incidents of recent years, nearly 200 people were killed at Christmas in 2023 in raids on mostly Christian towns. In September 2001 sectarian rioting in Jos claimed almost 1,000 lives in a five-day rampage. What sparked recent attacks? The motive behind the latest flare-up is unclear, and President Bola Tinubu has ordered an investigation. The governor of the state Caleb Manasseh Mutfwang has called the resurgence "premeditated, coordinated, and driven by a clear and sinister agenda", pointing the finger at Muslim Fulani groups. Widespread reports over recent years have shown that local quarrels between individuals or small groups can spiral into deadly outbreaks of indiscriminate violence and retaliatory attacks. Political tensions, land grabbing and illegal mining have all pushed people into conflict, with perpetrators rarely brought to justice. Climate change role? The vast majority of the conflicts in Plateau have their roots in tensions over land between Muslim herders and mostly Christian farmers. But the impact of climate change has added an extra layer of stress to the tensions as the populations grow, farmers seek more space for crops and grazing routes come under stress from droughts. "Climate change is intensifying tension between farmers and cattle herders because that area in the country, the Middle Belt, is where we have much of the cattle herders -- due to the increasing scarcity of water and arable land," said Olumide Idowu of the Nigerian non-profit organisation International Climate Change Development Initiative. Historical context The latest attacks have rekindled historical hatred and trauma in the state of just under five million people -- around two percent of Nigeria's population of 230 million. "It's as though people still hold grudges," said policy analyst Charles Asiegbu. "Both Muslims, both Christians, have not forgiven themselves, have not moved on" since the deadly clashes of the early 2000s. "People are not forgetting what has happened." Killings have been going on since 1994 and "they have intensified since the return to civilian rule" in 1999, said Chidi Odinkalu, professor in international human rights law at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. President Tinubu blames the ongoing violence on "misunderstandings between different ethnic and religious groups". What action to curb attacks? The state has in past years worked to halt the bloodshed through peacebuilding and reconciliation efforts. For the past 23 years the federal government has deployed a military-led security taskforce codenamed Operation Safe Haven in Plateau state. But these efforts appear not to be bearing fruit in the countryside. "It's a broader security or insecurity problem we are facing as a nation," said Asiegbu. In 2004, then-president Olusegun Obasanjo declared emergency rule in the Plateau. The move did not yield many results. Current leader Tinubu recently declared a politically contentious state of emergency in a southern oil-producing state, but has yet to take similar action in Plateau. "He has spent political capital where it's not needed... where not one person has been killed," said Odinkalu, who has studied the violence in Plateau for nearly 25 years. The president has been away in France for a "working visit" since April 2. "Where does it happen that citizens are being killed in these numbers and the president does not show up? Nigerians are being killed and the president is missing," said Odinkalu.

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