Jitters in Rift and Mt Kenya over Uhuru, Raila pact

Kajiado Governor Joseph ole Lenku (left) with Principal Enkii Boys’ Secondary School James Ngugi at Kimana, Oloitokitok, during a prize-giving day on 24/3/18. Mr Lenku said the newfound unity between President Kenyatta and NASA leader Raila Odinga was not about the 2022 election. [Peterson Githaiga, Standard]

Weeks after President Uhuru Kenyatta and NASA leader Raila Odinga entered into a political pact, Jubilee leaders are raising concerns that the Opposition leader’s entry may not only scuttle its 2022 succession plans but also leave the ruling party handicapped.

Though publicly coy about their positions against Raila’s pact, some leaders in Jubilee are already planning how they will contain the Opposition leader’s political clout from destabilising them.

Senate Deputy Speaker Kithure Kindiki was among the first leaders to register his reservations about the new political realignment that could destabilise Jubilee Party.

Dent party

Speaking at a church service at Mukothima in his home county a week ago, Prof Kindiki noted that the pact could jolt Jubilee’s plans to have Ruto succeed Uhuru in 2022 and also dent the ruling party.

Leaders in Kajiado, while addressing residents at Enkii Secondary School in Kajiado South Constituency on Saturday, warned Raila that he should not expect to be backed by Jubilee Party in 2022.

The leaders said the newfound unity between President Kenyatta and Raila should not be construed to mean that there could be a 2022 election deal.

Led by Narok County Governor Joseph ole Lenku, the leaders said they fully support the unity pact but insisted that the Jubilee succession plan was on course.

They also raised fears that the pact could impact on Jubilee Party.

“The unity efforts must be solely to help Jubilee fast-track the achievement of its Four sector agenda, not to disrupt the Jubilee political arithmetic which was agreed should go beyond 2017,” said Mr Lenku.

Ruto dream

Kajiado West MP George Sunkuya, nominated senator Mary Seneta and MCAs led by Onesmus Ngogoyo asserted the Ruto dream should be more enhanced with the NASA inclusion and not be frustrated.

“We are different parties. Our Jubilee Party has its own political plan. That plan will go on with or without the NASA input... We have welcomed them but our man is Mr Ruto,” said Mr Sunkuya.

The Jubilee leaders’ critical statements come in the wake of jitters among party supporters that Raila’s dalliance with the ruling party could alter its succession arithmetic.

Similar uneasiness abound in Mt Kenya and Rift Valley regions where politicians are also wary of Raila’s political implications in Uhuru’s succession plan.

According to a Mount Kenya MP who sought anonymity, there is need for caution since Raila had created political tensions and divisions in the past.

“Raila has behaved unruly and chaotically in the past. In 1996, he broke Ford Kenya to form his own party NDP. After 1997, he broke the Opposition to join Kanu. He then broke Kanu to join LDP and left ODM-Kenya to form ODM in 2006. I can say with certainity that Jubilee will not remain the same if we are not careful,” said the MP.

The legislator claimed that Raila had broken every coalition deal he has made since 1999.

His Kieni counterpart Kanini Kega said that as much as he welcomes the handshake, it should not go beyond helping President Kenyatta deliver in his final term.

Franklin Bett, the former Roads minister who served in the former President Moi’s regime and the grand coalition government, says Uhuru-Raila unity deal will see what he described as “major political realignment in the region.”
 “Anyone who does not think that the unity between the two leaders will have any political impact, especially in the Rift Ralley, he/she is not a realist. People have started talking about these things,”  Bett says, adding that the most important thing for the country is unity for development. He says leaders in the region are keenly watching to see what card Raila will pull.

“There is already a deal between the two Jubilee Party leaders on 2022. And now there is Raila working with Uhuru to unite the country. This definitely has its own political consequences,” he says.

Emurua Dikirr MP Johana Ngeno and Kericho Senator Aaron Cheruiyot see things differently.

“The coming together of the President and his archrival Raila says nothing about the 2022 politics. It is too early to draw conclusions,” says Mr Cheruiyot.

Mr Ngeno agrees, but adds that it will create new political realignments, with big and small time casualties.

Although seasoned politician and former Cabinet minister Musa Sirma agrees that the pact will unite Kenyans, he is of the opinion that it will alter politics in the region in a big way.

“First, we do not know whether President Uhuru’s constituency in Central Kenya will reciprocate the support voters of Rift Valley gave him on two occasions. Kenyans learned from the experience Raila got after supporting President Kibaki’s election in 2002,” he says.

Watching keenly

Sirma, who contested the Eldama Ravine parliamentary seat in the last elections and lost, says voters in the region were keenly watching the unfolding political scenario and opines that whichever card Raila will play in the course of his unity rallies across the country will have much impact on Rift Valley.

He, however, admits that politicians in the region, including the Deputy President and the Baringo Senator Gideon Moi, may be forced to re-strategise.

Analysts say although the deal has managed to reduce political temperatures in the vote-rich region, it has a potential of making and unmaking many political careers.

They also argue that it will galvanise votes for any leader from the region eyeing the presidency in 2022, impacting on the Jubilee Party succession plan.

“The handshake has the potential of altering the current political arrangements. It may galvanise votes for William Ruto.

“But one thing, for sure, it has stirred up the politics,” says Philip Chebunet, a political lecturer at the University of Eldoret.

In Jubilee, Uhuru and Ruto have a deal that when the President’s term expires, he will endorse his deputy as his successor for the 2022 General Election.

[Steve Mkawale, Jacob Ng’etich and Peterson Githaiga]