OPINION: Why election boycott could be a win-win situation for NASA

NASA is threatening to boycott the October 17th election if its bare minimum conditions are not met by the IEBC.

Chief among its conditions to participate in the coming election is the removal of IEBC CEO Ezra Chiloba who is accused of mismanaging the election process.

Although there is still a controversial debate of whether NASA’s boycott is consequential or not, NASA should go ahead and boycott the October 17th election.

Some experts in the country believe that the boycott will subject the country into a constitutional and legal crisis because Kenyan constitution is silent in the situation when one candidate withdraws from the election after his or her name has been gazetted.

Jubilee, on the other hand, is persuaded that the boycott is inconsequential. However, what is clear is that election will still be conducted by IEBC whether NASA boycotts it or not.

A boycott is the most strategic move by NASA, particularly if its prediction shows that it will not win the re-run election. Importantly, the move will delegitimise Uhuru’s presidency, making him a president of only a section of Kenyans. No leader in the world wants has delegitimised powers.

Secondly, the revolt will give NASA the opportunity to revolt against the regime in the future. Previous cases and studied have revealed that election boycott gives opposition trigger crisis or revolt, thereby challenging the authority of the regime.

A good example is Peruvian Opposition parties’ boycott of 2000 election against President Alberto Fujimori. Fujimori was forced to step down after series of massive demonstration, leading to a repeat of lection. Election boycott also created a crisis in Zimbabwe in 2008 election, forcing President Robert Mugabe to appoint Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai the Prime Minister.

At the same time, it may lead to massive reforms in the election process in Kenya.

Therefore, to avoid the risks of losing again, to achieve its secession agenda, NASA should boycott October 17th election. But for the strategy to be effective, NASA should ensure mass boycott in its strongholds. Even though some people will still come out and vote, it should ensure that the turnout in its strongholds is less than 5%.