Party primaries are finally settling down but this was the first important stage to what will be one of the toughest presidential campaigns in Kenya’s history. Considering the stakes ahead this will be a highly divisive campaign.
The kind of primaries that the key parties have conducted is quite telling. From the winners and losers there were too many issues at hand. Well some favoured candidates have lost all the same but also some clever strategies were in place to get some candidates through. Some key politicians in both sides of the political divide, Jubilee and NASA, were busy strategising post August 8th 2017 poll.
There are many looking beyond to strategise on what they will be after the poll in terms of positioning themselves in the national government and county ones. If we stick strictly to the national ones there are several positions with allure and obviously other things that fall in place resultant from closeness to power. In a nutshell an election is too many things in one. However, there is also the uniqueness that this election is affected by the 2022 poll dynamics.
On both side of the coalitions the 2022 poll is very important. On Jubilee side it should be obvious Deputy President William Ruto is quite keen as a candidate for 2022 poll. The biggest headache is Jubilee as a single party amalgamating many other parties has not worked. I have previously warned that Kenya is nowhere being South Africa or our neighbours Tanzania where the independence parties have held strong sway and networks of social political nature in those countries. Ours is parties that fly by night and many that quickly vanish.
On the other side of NASA despite Raila flying the flag two scenarios emerge. If it happens that Raila wins the August 2017 still the powerful coalition partners will be keen to a deal that they will not be cheated. The resultant risks of trying to cheat them on would wreck him quite fast if history is anything to go by and thus he would have to play ball to what they want in terms of power and future political dispensation. If he loses the other coalition partners have a longer political shelf life and 2022 and other political contest in future is important engagements for them. Their political future is gaining traction and they cannot be ignored in Kenya’s politics now and in future. Bottom-line this election remains more than one moment or issue or event consideration.
The poll is also unique in that we are experiencing the effects of youth boom and fast population growth. Yet the challenge is many of our people are jobless and poor. This is a waking call moment. Some of the youthful politicians and ground mobilisers who have either won or even lost have clearly sent a message. The future will be different. Populist politics will quickly pick up unless we sort out the messy economic dispensation of the thin class on top and very many playing in the hustler’s economy. You ignore the poor at your own peril as a country and this is the point Kenya has gotten itself into.
Some populist are almost assured of winning the seats and some may lose. But this notwithstanding it is an indicator of how politics will increasingly be played if we continue with the challenges we have. The poor shall only trust whoever looks close to them or seen to address their needs even if by populist nature which may not work to sort their economic misery. What is important is they want immediate solutions. Immediate solutions as you sort long term economic paradigm as short measures are just that in longevity.
Looking at Kenya’s demographics indicate huge opportunities and huge risks. We have an energetic and increasingly educated population. But without providing them adequate economic opportunities which are well distributed and each given a chance to advance a good life is a waking nightmare. In an era of greater advancement in communication technologies and globalisation you can’t take painful economic conditions for granted.
They can be a nightmare for the immediate and future. Yet the challenges have been building up for a long time but need immediate as well as long term solutions. They do inform politics and they have huge propensity to influence politics negatively. We have to act pretty fast to get the economic cogs working faster and more productively.
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