Raila, Ruto unlikely to be president in 2022

Deputy President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga at an event in 2006. [File, Standard]

Kenya’s political behemoth, NASA, is dead, and Jubilee painfully lives on. William Ruto is ghettoised while Raila Odinga, Gideon Moi and Kalonzo Musyoka have made pacts with Jubilee. NASA has gone through political semelparity ­- a reproductive strategy by a tiny Australian male mammal called antechinus, which dies after mating.

To antechinus, mating by suicide is worthwhile as it benefits the posterity. Through political semelparity, NASA has died, but that death, methinks, can only help Kenya if Raila remains just a kingmaker. Should this wish be granted, Ruto must also plan to king someone else in 2022.

Why should 2022 elections be a game of the two? Raila and Ruto are like a crocodile and an alligator. The two reptiles are close relatives; they look similar and sometimes live together, but they cannot interbreed because they belong to different families.

Wisdom grants that when an alligator reports that crocodile is sick, it should not be doubted. So, if Ruto says Raila won’t be president, bank it well; and if Raila says Ruto won’t see State House, your faith in him will make you whole. They have been saying that against each other a lot; either directly or through proxies. Indubitably, each of them is working hard to ensure the other does not see State House.

That has left me convinced - I may be wrong - that none of them will enter the house on the hill come 2022. The best they can do therefore is what they have successfully done before — 'king' someone.

Let me explain using the Wars of Roses in England between 22 May 1455 and 22 August 1485. It was a series of bloody battles to control the throne of England by the two rival royal families; the House of Lancaster (the red rose) and the House of York (the white rose). During this war, Richard Neville (the Earl of Warwick) earned the epithet of its kind "the Kingmaker" for his stealth, cunning and daring manoeuvres that saw him broker power between the two royal families as long as he lived.

The Wars of Roses teaches us that a kingmaker's mission and vision is to make sure their rival does not come close to the throne; if fronting another person can help them rule and exercise control, they better go for it. The Wars of Roses' history begins when King Henry VI is incapacitated and the Duke of Somerset virtually starts ruling. Richard Neville is not in good terms with the Duke of Somerset and thus fronts the Duke of York’s to deny the Duke of Somerset kingship.

Sounds familiar? Analysing Raila and Ruto rivalry, we learn that kingmakers can punish a rival by sponsoring, fronting and kinging a candidate so that they can gain some control. This is what Ruto did in 2013. Ruto, as kingmaker, wanted to punish Raila, who betrayed him in the coalition government. This way Ruto succeeded in isolating Raila from the throne between 2013 and 2018, when Baba usurped the throne by winning Uhuru's political heart.

Moreover, the duplicitous loyalty of kingmakers can quickly fade away in case their rival is eliminated. In the Wars of Roses, Richard Neville supported the Duke of York, but when the duke of Somerset died in the war, and King Henry VI was captured, he became his enemy. Sensing danger, the Duke of York shared power with Richard Neville. Having been neutralised, the kingmaker diverted his energies, forming diplomatic relationships and posing himself as a man of sound military valour in his glamorous offices. That is how Kibaki and Uhuru treated Raila in 2008 and 2018 handshake deals respectively.

Note also that kingmakers cannot stand their rival eyeing the throne unless they approve of it. In the Wars of Roses, when King Henry VI was captured, the Duke of York went to parliament and placed his hands on the throne, implying that ‘this seat is mine’. This mistake curdled his relationship with Richard Neville, and an Act of Accord was passed in parliament that no one can inherit the throne unless the King is dead. This act of accord was purely coined to tame the Duke of York’s ambitions. In Kenya, this is what DP Ruto is accused of — that through his proxies; he implied that ‘this 2022 presidency is mine’. All Jubilee energies after that were aimed at taming him.

It is also true that kingmakers rule through those they install as kings. When the Duke of York was killed, and King Richard VI was exiled in Scotland, Richard Neville turned against the Lancastrian forces (red rose) and installed Edward IV from London house (white rose) as king. This way, Richard Neville the kingmaker ruled England through King Edward IV; holding powerful positions. This makes me think Uhuru is fighting to take from his kingmaker Ruto the powers he had relinquished. However, he is transferring it to a more vociferous kingmaker — Raila Odinga.

What can I say then? If Ruto wants to ‘flatten Raila’s curve’ toward 2022, he should front a candidate. Likewise, Raila can only knee Ruto if he supports another candidate for 2022.

Dr Ndonye is a Political Economist of Media and Communication