Will Azimio survive 'curse' of coalitions?

Raila Odinga attending funeral of late Augustine Wasonga in Siaya. [Michael Mute, Standard]

Azimio is undoubtedly going through a rough patch.

Ego trips and supremacy battles threaten the opposition coalition.

Events of the past week have revealed behind-the-scenes push and pull, which is testing the coalition’s unity.

Former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka’s public spat with Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua almost confirms that Azimio may not be around for much longer, at least not in its current form and with the current membership.

It is more than obvious that the fight in Azimio is mostly about who succeeds former Prime Minister Raila Odinga as its foremost leader. Kalonzo, who has supported Raila in the last three presidential elections, feels it is his turn to bring the prize home.

The Wiper leader has seemed restless for an assurance that Raila would back him up, vowing not to support the former premier in the 2027 presidential contest.

Kalonzo is keen to have no one spoil his party, hence his recent attack on the Kamwene caucus, which comprises Karua and other politicians from her Mt Kenya backyard.

“I don’t want to pass judgment on that issue, but have you heard of dead on arrival? This thing means individualism. It is a terrible political philosophy. I would advise my friends to leave it and we stick together in Azimio,” he said in an interview on KTN News, earning a clap back from Karua.

“What about Kamwene scares my brother Kalonzo Musyoka that he must drag it in every conversation he has?” Karua posed on X.

Highly placed sources within Azimio have consistently told The Sunday Standard that Kalonzo’s candidacy in the next elections was a done deal. But the signs tell a different story. For starters, Karua’s push through Kamwene suggests that nothing is settled yet.

Then there is the fact that Raila does not seem like he will retire from active politics any time soon. He is as active as he has ever been. Raila still stands out as the face and voice of the opposition, a move that has prompted pressure from within his ranks to have him try out for the presidency a sixth time.

The former premier has kept many guessing over his plans and has appeared more preoccupied with keeping President William Ruto in check, rather than commencing campaigns.

Additionally, Raila is strengthening ODM. The opposition leader will be busy in the next month with grassroots recruitment drives across the country. But that does not spook Kalonzo.

Azimio la Umoja principals Martha Karua, Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka during the Kamkunji Grounds rally held at Kibra on April 28, 2023. [Silas Otieno, Standard]

“We believe that a strong ODM, Wiper, Jubilee, Narc Kenya, Kanu and other affiliate parties will mean a stronger Azimio,” Kalonzo said in the interview.

Kalonzo’s assertion would carry more weight had all constituent parties indeed been strong. Former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party is falling apart and is swaying more towards Ruto.

On Thursday, the president met some Jubilee MPs from Nakuru County. He has successfully won over a majority of Jubilee MPs, who are currently charting a path away from Azimio.

The opposition’s protests have done little to stem Ruto’s onslaught on Azimio, where the Head of State has fished lawmakers from other constituent parties.

Remarks by National Assembly Minority Leader Opiyo Wandayi, a staunch ally of Raila, that a new coalition could be in the offing complicates matters for Kalonzo’s and Karua’s succession plans.

“...2027 is still very far. The political landscape is going to change. There will be alignments and realignments between now and the next election... Azimio could evolve into a bigger movement, which could be named something else,” Wandayi said in an interview on NTV, stating they would support whoever will be picked to fly its flag.

Last Tuesday, Raila met businessman and former presidential aspirant Jimi Wanjigi, rousing debate on whether he plans to chart a political course away from his traditional allies. Sources have told The Sunday Standard that Raila and Wanjigi have reached a “working agreement” that could potentially complicate Azimio’s future, placing it on a path trodden by other coalitions.

Since the return of pluralism in 1992, political formations have had a five-year shelf life. Such outfits have been formed to win power, crumbling upon success or failure.

“It is the nature of coalitions to collapse. When they achieve their purpose, coalitions collapse because everyone is fighting over who gets what. When they fail, they have nothing to hold them together,” said university lecturer Macharia Munene.

Prof Munene does not see Azimio holding up until 2027 as it is “already fragmented”.

“Each politician is looking into the future, which does not necessarily include their other colleagues. Kalonzo wants to be president and his political survival in Ukambani depends on whether he is presidential material. Martha, too, wants to be president and wants to show that she can hold her own,” said the historian.

In the past three elections, Raila has sought the presidency on three different coalitions. In 2013, he was part of the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (Cord), which morphed into the National Super Alliance (Nasa) in 2017. He eventually ran on an Azimio ticket in 2022.

The ruling coalition has also been different since 2002 when former President Mwai Kibaki’s National Rainbow Coalition (Narc) swept to power.

Wrangles would break up Narc in 2005, and Kibaki would seek re-election through the Party of National Unity (PNU).

When former President Uhuru Kenyatta and Azimio la Umoja Presidential Candidate Raila Odinga attended a campaign rally at Jacaranda Grounds in Nairobi County. [File, Standard]

His successor, Uhuru, seemed to have beaten the jinx when in 2017 he vied on a firmed-up version of the coalition that brought him to power in 2013. The Jubilee Alliance Party of 2013 would dissolve into a party that its founders said would rule for a century.

Uhuru’s handshake with Raila would sideline Ruto, then deputy president, and he would leave to form the Kenya Kwanza alliance. The president intends to have the ruling coalition dissolve into a single party, a push that some constituent parties, such as National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula’s Ford Kenya and Amani National Congress, oppose. 

Azimio is also struggling to contain dissent over a report by the National Dialogue Committee (Nadco) that Kalonzo co-chaired alongside National Assembly Majority Leader Kimani Ichung’wah.

Raila’s ODM plans to endorse the Nadco report “as is”, as the party’s Secretary General Edwin Sifuna said in a statement on Wednesday. This position is shared by Kalonzo.

Karua and former Defence Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa have opposed the report over its failure to address the cost of living.