What to look at when predicting match outcomes

[PHOTO: COURTESY]

There are millions of shillings to be won in Kenya's vibrant sports betting scene, but it's difficult to cash in when you don't know how to select the winning match outcome.

While it's possible for lady luck to smile your way when you place bets blindly, you can increase your odds of winning though simple analysis.

Here are four factors you should always consider before placing your bet:

1.    The team’s lineup

Check how the lineups look. Which footballers will play this match? Are any of the players out of form or recovering from an injury?

A team's game strategy and performance in a game is directly linked to the players who will be on the field, so check the lineups before betting.

2.    Change of odds

Odd analysis is one of the greatest factors to consider during betting, as it indicates the team's likeliness to win. When you place your next bet, remember that if your team has the lowest odds, it is most likely to win. On the flip side, low odds also mean that the possible wins are lower per standard amount.

When analyzing odds, it's vital to ensure the numbers you are looking at are credible. Shedding light on how firm's like his calculate their odds, M-Bet CEO M-bet CEO Gabriel Ferrer said that betting firms invest heavily in trend analysis.

"We look at a wide range of factors in coming up with the odds and we have a whole team that works on the data. We look at how the team have performed, previous head-to-heads, the lineups and other factors in our research," he explained, adding that this is what gives his platform a competitive advantage.

3.    Team history

Has the team's performance improved greatly over the season? Has there been a sudden drop over the last few matches?

Changes in training, management and other internal factors can see traditionally strong teams perform dismally in coming matches. Consider a team's recent history and long term trends as they are often good indicators of match outcomes.

Giving an insider's perspective, Ferer said big winners often spend ample time in research. He advises those who want to cash in to do their homework.

"You should gather information about the teams before you make your bet. The time you spend researching your picks should correlate to the magnitude of your bet," said Gabriel.

4.    Game location

According to research done by betting experts, teams with home ground advantage tend to perform much better than visiting teams. This, combined with the factors listed above could greatly impact the outcome of an individual match.

While there are no guarantees when it comes to sports betting, doing your research increases your chances of making a winning bet.

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