Meles Zenawi’s ill health real cause for worry beyond Ethiopia

By Juma Kwayera

The absence of Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi from public life is eliciting interest in Kenya as much as Ethiopia, barely five months after he was at the Coast for the signing of a tripartite agreement for infrastructure development that also ropes in South Sudan.

In Addis Ababa, there are concerns that Zenawi, described by opponents as a tin-pot despot, is seriously sick or even worse as he has not been seen in public for close to two months. There is general despondency in the Ethiopian capital, accustomed to the omnipresence of the prime minister via the highly censored media.

Fears of the prime minister’s health came to light during last month’s African Union summit, which despite being host, he did not attend. The last time Zenawi appeared in public was in June during the G-20 conference in Mexico.

That the leader who cuts the picture of a demi-god is missing in action is a major source of concern at home and in the Horn of Africa, where he is a key player in regional politics. However, it is at home that Zemawi vacuum has escalated anxiety among the state officials and ordinary people.

According, Dr Ododa Opiyo, Kenya specialist on regional conflict currently seconded to African Mission in Somalia (Amison) the power vacuum in Ethiopia should be cause for concern outside the country.

“Zenawi has been in power since 1991. During this period, he was not only the chief executive officer of administration, but was the law of the courts; he would make his wishes the law of the land in a matter of hours. His type of leadership intimidated any opposition in Ethiopia. At the same time the leadership from the ruling Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Party (EPRDP) remained fearful of the reprisals Zenawi would mete out on internal opposition,” he says.

Internal dynamics of Ethiopian politics make the concerns about the premier’s whereabouts genuine as it has direct bearings on the country’s stability as it has far reaching ramifications in the Horn and the wider eastern Africa.

During the July conference, Ethiopian officials downplayed the anxiety saying the prime minister was on “sick leave”, but would not disclose whether he was hospitalised or had been granted bed rest.

A member of the AU General Assembly of the Economic, Social and Cultural Council (Ecosoc), Mr Ismail Noo, who was in Addis Ababa for the election of Ms Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma as chairperson of the AU Commission recalls the state of anxiety Zenawi’s absence had generated.

“Ethiopians are living in a dictatorship. During the AU conference they would not be openly discussed. Instead, Ethiopians wanted to hear much as possible from delegates from other countries because it is criminal to discuss the president’s health. Ethiopians would only talk about in whispers and in private,” recalls Noo.

Dr Mohammed Ali, an expert on Horn of Africa politics and conflicts told The Standard on Sunday that the implication of Zenawi’s absence is grave as his role in regional affairs was critical, allegations about tyrannical rule levelled at his regime notwithstanding.

“Uncertainty in Ethiopia has implication for Kenya’s security as the armies of the countries are currently in Somalia fighting Al Shabaab. Therefore, Zenawi’s absence has the potential to cause instability as far as Kenya and other countries in the region because of its large population. Add to this the fact that Ethiopia has the largest military in the region (estimated to be a million, including reserves), any form of instability will trigger an exodus of refugees and flow of illegal arms to neighbouring countries, especially Kenya,” says Dr Ali.

Ethiopians have always looked to Kenya, which retains a sizeable population of its southern neighbour’s population from the effects of the 1972 and 1983 famine. In the event of any political disturbance, a replay of the famines and the 1991 political turmoil following the ouster of Mengistu Haile Mariam is not being ruled out, as it would precipitate an exodus of Ethiopians into Kenya, according to Ali.

The scholar adds: “Zenawi has contributed significantly to the stabilisation of Somalia. It has one of the largest and the best equipped militaries and his indisposition would easily cause Ethiopia to disengage in the war against terror. Even more gruesome is that the instability would trigger capital flight, and being Kenya’s important trading partner, the effects are bound to be felt in Kenya.”

A US congressman with vast knowledge of Horn of Africa politics, particularly Ethiopia, backs the sentiments. The congressman, who would be named because of his past engagement with Ethiopia, told The Standard on Sunday via an email: “Some people have blamed every ill on the prime minister. The fact of the matter is Ethiopia is relatively stable politically and economically. Ethiopia is not an easy country to rule. Ethiopia has also been an important regional player under the leadership of the Zenawi from peacekeeping to mediation efforts. Ethiopian peacekeeping forces played key role shortly after the Rwandan genocide. In Sudan, Ethiopia is also an important player.”

Zenawi’s reported incapacitation has undoubtedly created a power vacuum and rumours about his health status do not help matters either. Mr Noo says reported wrangling in the ruling politburo further compounds the rumours, which maintain a tight leash on the flow of information.

“Replacement of the prime minister, should matters come to that, will be secretive where ethnicity will play a key role. However, there is unease in the politburo and disagreement would trigger a conflict that would have far-reaching effects.

Media agencies have been reporting that the prime minister is admitted in St Luke Hospital in Belgium suffering from a terminal brain tumour. Government officials have denied this claim, only saying their leader is on sick leave. When The Standard on Sunday called the Ethiopian embassy in Nairobi, the phone went unanswered.