ODM losing ground as rivals exploit internal rifts- analyst

Policy and governance analyst, Alenga Torosterdt. [Screen grab]

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) risks losing ground in its traditional strongholds as rival political parties exploit internal divisions to court grassroots supporters, a political analyst now says.

Alenga Torosterdt, a policy and governance analyst, said parties built around dominant founders often struggle to survive once that figure exits the political stage.

"People never prepare for the eventuality of losing the founder of a vision, so when it happens, they often struggle to put things back together," said Torosterdt while on Spice FM on Wednesday, January 7.

His remarks coincided with what would have been Raila Odinga's 81st birthday.

Seven ODM legislators earlier this week claimed that  rival parties were moving aggressively to occupy spaces the Party once dominated, warning that the losses could accelerate unless unity is restored.

The Members of Parliament, including Otiende Amollo (Rarieda) and Millie Odhiambo (Suba North), stated that the encroachment could escalate if internal wrangles continue.

In the Gusii region, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) has gained traction among voters, while the Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K) has expanded its presence in Western Kenya.

Movement for Growth and Democracy (MDG), led by Ugenya MP David Ochieng, is also making inroads in ODM strongholds.

Torosterdt said ODM's two-decade dominance stemmed from Odinga’s personal bond with grassroots voters rather than formal party structures.

"Every political formation exists because of its relevance, and often, Raila drew this relevance directly from the people themselves," he explained.

"He strategically positioned himself as the last person to question or challenge what was happening in the lives of the common man, and that is what sustained ODM over the years.”

Three months after Odinga’s death in October 2025, that connection now faces a test.

National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohamed and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga lead the faction pushing for a formal coalition with President William Ruto's 2027 re-election bid, while Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna opposes any alliance with the ruling Party.

The ideological divide deepened into personal attacks when Sifuna accused Junet of mismanaging campaign funds from former President Uhuru Kenyatta during the 2022 General Election, claiming agents were left unpaid and cost ODM victory.

Junet has since denied the allegations, claiming that Uhuru's brother, Muhoho Kenyatta, and aide Patrick Mburu controlled the funds from a restricted office in Westlands that even Odinga could not freely access.

The dispute has escalated to calls for Sifuna's expulsion, though intervention by Odinga’s widow, Ida, and Party trustees temporarily eased tensions.

A December 2025 poll by TIFA Research showed only 19 per cent of ODM supporters want the Party to back Ruto in 2027, revealing a gap between party leadership and grassroots sentiment.

The seven MPs described ODM's current state as "self-cannibalisation" in their January 5 statement.

"It is a testament to how much we miss the wisdom and iconic leadership of the departed Raila Odinga that divisive rhetoric has taken over our politics, without restraint," noted Amollo.