Ruto's crowds: Are the numbers lying or is the Mountain still with him?

President Ruto addresses Tharaka university students after he officially opened the institution's Tuition Complex in Tharaka Nithi County. [PCS] President William Ruto is relishing addressing large crowds in the Mt Kenya region during his weeklong tour. But are the large masses a show of affection or a staged show to give him a false representation of the actual mood on the ground? The President's huge popularity in the region has taken a beating over the last two years because of the government's poor performance ratings. The slump in clout is further compounded by his fallout with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, now considered a regional kingpin. Many political observers, therefore, expected hostility and resentment against President Ruto as opposed to the large enthusiastic crowds that turned out to welcome him at most stops. The backlash against him has also been exacerbated by the perception that he okayed the removal of MPs from the region who were serving as chairpersons of parliamentary committees. President Ruto's supporters, however, insist that the large turnout shows the faith and confidence that voters in the region still have in his leadership. The counterargument however is that the crowds are deceiving and delusionary because they are not spontaneous. Governance and leadership advisor Peter Mbae argues that the difference between the crowds the President is seeing and the votes he will receive in 2027 will reveal the character of people in the Mt Kenya region. That point is buttressed by Nyeri Governor Mutahi Kahiga, one of the President's harshest critics who used coded language to explain his unexpected presence and the elation that greeted Ruto's visit to Kieni in his county. "I have noted frenzied interest in my attendance of the President's functions in Kieni. Do not read too much into this photo and others shared all over. The Presidency must be respected. The governor of Nyeri received The President of the Republic of Kenya in Nyeri, Kieni Constituency. The governor of Nyeri will still receive The President of The Republic of Kenya on Saturday in both Nyeri Town and Othaya Constituencies. Ni lazima kutofautisha mambo!" wrote Kahiga Dr Mbae says Ruto received a lot of support in 2022 because the then President Uhuru Kenyatta who was largely absent in the region since 2013, asked his deputy to represent him at many functions. That helped the current President to build his support base in Mt Kenya. "He took advantage of Uhuru's absence to get the people's trust since 2013, but the Mountain is gone because of politics of perceived betrayal. Launching projects like markets, roads, power and schools will be cheered because that is the correct thing to do but it can't result into any votes," says Mbae. President Ruto has repeatedly told large gatherings in Laikipia, Nyandarua, Meru and Kirinyaga this week that his strong bond with the people of Mt Kenya cannot be broken by political detractors like Gachagua and his allies. Mbae however wonders how Mt Kenya people can believe him, when he is perceived to have orchestrated the removal of the 14 MPs from the region as chairpersons of various parliamentary committees because of their alleged support for Gachagua. "You cannot mess with people representing a whole constituency of about four million voters and think you are safe. Why soil former Attorney General Justin Muturi's name because you want to sack him?" Mbae asked, referring to the President's claim that he removed Muturi from the State law office because of incompetence. The President could have also noticed that whereas no open anger was displayed against him, his lieutenants like Kikuyu MP Kimani Ichung'wa were heckled in his presence as they tried to drum up support for him. Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo also thinks the crowd numbers were boosted by supporters of ex-Mungiki leader Maina Njenga who is facing what he describes as tramped up charges in court which he wants the government to withdraw. Former Kenya National Union of Teachers (Knut) Secretary General Wilson Sossion however thinks Gachagua and those fighting Ruto should have been shocked by the welcoming crowds and the emerging political shifts and turns because they had "put a lot of premium on some imaginary rebellion" in the Mt Kenya region. He argues the large crowds receiving President Ruto shows that the people of Mt Kenya, and indeed all Kenyans, want politics based on issues, which the President has prosecuted very well. "We have seen him commissioning completed school projects, and even if they were constructed using the Constituency Development Fund (CDF) as some are saying, they are still projects of the Republic of Kenya, whose President is William Ruto," says Sossion. The former nominated MP also finds it noble for the President to address crowds while commissioning completed projects because he is accounting for what the government has done as he further mobilizes the people towards achieving more developmental targets. He also thinks the President's transformative agenda is being frustrated by negative politics and those pulling him down to the level of Gachagua, "an impeached person who has already been replaced by a more competent person" from the Mt Kenya region. Opposition leaders like Kathiani MP Robert Mbui however disagree with the President's continued obsession for crowds and campaigning on car rooftops while focusing on his 2027 re-election instead of sitting in office to deliver services for the people. "He is not doing anything to improve the fortunes of Kenyans. We are running short of photos showing the President working at State House. He is busy running around on car rooftops addressing crowds and focusing on his 2027 re-election," says Mbui. Political pundits argue that Ruto cannot be faulted for getting excited by the crowds because a politician's job is to talk and their greatest happiness is when they find a responsive big and even rowdy crowd that is ready to listen to them. Mobilised crowds Many of those analysing the President's visit on TV talk shows have argued that the huge crowds have been extensively mobilised with a lot of resources to attend the meetings and it is, therefore, difficult to judge if the reception he is getting is genuine. Murang'a Senator Joe Nyutu claimed that the excitement was expected because local MPs supporting the President were financially facilitated to pay Sh5000 to each motorcycle taxi rider (boda boda) who ferried at least three people to the rallies. Other pundits also argued that parallels should be drawn with the large crowds that attended ODM leader Raila Odinga and his ally Uhuru Kenyatta's rallies in the region before the 2022 elections, which never translated into votes. "The only cautionary parallel you can make from the crowds is that Raila was also getting those big numbers at his meeting, when people were supporting Ruto. Voters in the region are not emotional. It is difficult to understand how they are thinking," says Gitile Naituli, a lecturer at Multimedia University. Prof Naituli advises that instead of listening to cheerleaders who could be giving him false hopes through crowd mobilization, President Ruto should apply emotional intelligence and situational awareness to read what people are not expressing verbally. But Ruto has nothing to lose because the crowds are also supposed to provide optics and create an impression that the President still enjoys support and probably build on that to develop a good profile before the 2027 campaign picks momentum. The crowds may also not be bothered with the dismissal of their leaders from government positions.

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