Three out of four polls place Raila ahead days to general elections

Azimio la Umoja presidential candidate Raila Odinga. [Stafford Ondego, Standard]

Three polls conducted within the last week have placed Azimio One Kenya alliance flag bearer Raila Odinga as the most popular candidate with just five days to the August 9 General Election.

With today being the last day allowed by law for polling firms to publish voter pattern-prediction surveys, the three firms on August 2 made public their findings which showed relatively inferior popular ratings by Deputy President William Ruto.

In the latest poll released by Info track, Raila emerged as the most popular candidate across the nine sub-regions with 49 per cent, against  Ruto’s 42 per cent.

George Wajackoyah came in a distant third with only 2 per cent countrywide. Waihiga Mwaure is fourth with 0.3 per cent. His numbers are lower than the number of undecided voters who are estimated to be 6 per cent.

“If most of the undecided vote for Raila he would win in the first round, but realistically I do not think they will all move to one candidate,” said Angela Ambitho, Info track CEO

How regions polled

The poll that was conducted between 1st and 2nd August, targeted adult voters through computer-assisted telephone interviews. In the Coast region, Raila is the most preferred candidate with 58 per cent followed by Ruto with 29 per cent. Wajackoyah is third with 4 per cent and Mwaure at the tail end with 0.3 per cent. Interestingly, 8 per cent of voters at the Coast are undecided.

The Northern region also has Raila leading the pack with 55 per cent with Ruto coming in second with 35 per cent followed by Wajackoyah with 1 per cent. Mwaure did not score any per cent in terms of popularity. Those  who indicated they are yet to decide who to vote for in the Northern region stand at 9 per cent.

According to the poll, Raila is also leading in the lower Eastern region as the most preferred candidate with five days to the August elections. Ruto is a distant second with 19 per cent. He has also given Wajackoyah a wide berth who is at 1 per cent popularity. Mwaure is again last with 0.3 per cent. The number of undecided voters is 8 per cent.

In the vote-rich Mt Kenya, the scales are tilted in favour of Ruto who is the most preferred candidate with 66 per cent ratings. Raila is a distant second with 24 per cent. Wajackoyah is third with two per cent followed by Mwaure who only managed 0.3 per cent. The number of undecided voters is at  8 per cent.

Deputy President William Ruto addresses supporters in Meru town. [Phares Mutembei, Standard]

The script reads the same in South Rift where DP Ruto enjoys maximum support. In the region, Ruto is the most popular with 62 per cent and Raila comes in a distant second with 31 per cent. Wajackoyah follows suit with four per cent while Mwaure recorded 1 per cent. Those yet to make up their minds are 2 per cent.

In the North Rift region, Ruto continues to outdo Raila with 64 per cent against Raila’s 30 per cent. Wajackoyah is at 2 per cent while Mwaure is at 0.3 per cent. Undecided in the region are represented by 4 per cent. Nyanza region is where Raila regains the lead with 79 per cent against Ruto’s 14 per cent. Wajackoyah managed 3 per cent against Mwaure’s 0.3 per cent. The undecided account for 4 per cent.

Fears of a run-off

According to the poll, Raila is also the heartthrob of the Western region at 61 per cent against Ruto’s 29 per cent. Wajackoyah- who hails from the region- is only at 2 per cent but doing better than Mwaure who did not record any popularity in the area. The number of undecided is represented by 8 per cent.

In the capital city Nairobi, Raila has a 53 per cent lead compared to Ruto’s 37 per cent. Wajackoyah’s campaigns saw him endear himself to 3 per cent of the electorate while Mwaure only managed 1 per cent. The undecided city voters are 6 per cent.

In another poll by IPSOS, Raila is said to have a six-point lead against Kenya Kwanza Presidential candidate Ruto. The poll indicated that Raila was a favourite thanks to his rich legacy as a democrat and a nationalist while Ruto appealed to the masses given his perception as a conveyor of hope and as a leader with a clear plan to benefit Kenyans.

The poll released yesterday showed that Raila is the most preferred presidential candidate countrywide at 47 per cent against Ruto’s 41 per cent. This survey which was carried out between 23rd to 26 July 2022 further showed that Roots Party Presidential candidate George Wajackoyah would emerge a distant third with  2.9 per cent of the vote.  Mwaure was ranked last as having 0.2 per cent.

Roots Party Presidential candidate George Wajackoyah. [File, Standard]

During the launch of the poll, Samuel Muthoka, the Director of Research at Ipsos, disclosed that the number of undecided voters stood at 4 per cent.

"From this research, if Raila converts half of the undecided voters he will have a first-round win while if Mr Ruto will convert half of the undecided voters, he will force a re-run of the election," stated Muthoka.

The poll was conducted across 6,105 households spread across 47 counties. It targeted registered voters and employed face-to-face interviews.

TIFA presidential polls

According to yet to another poll by TIFA carried out in Nairobi and Kajiado, the Azimio One Kenya presidential candidate has a substantial lead in both counties. If elections were to be held at the time of the study in Nairobi, Raila would garner 52 per cent of the vote. Ruto would get 34 per cent of the vote while George Wajackoyah would get 5 per cent. Mwaure would get only 1 per cent.

Mwaure’s figures are lower than the number of undecided voters who are represented by 8 per cent. The poll was conducted on August 1, 2022, in Nairobi where 520 registered voters were interviewed as respondents.

Agano presidential candidate Waihiga Mwaure. [Jenipher Wachie, Standard]

In Kajiado, Raila is the most popular candidate and would get 47 per cent were the elections to happen today. This is compared to Ruto who would get 39 per cent of the vote. Wajackoyah would capture 2 per cent of the vote, but his competitor David Mwaure of the Agano party would not get a single vote. The undecided electorate is represented by 12 per cent.

In yet another poll by IRS, Ruto and his running mate Rigathi Gachagua were shown as leading and had maintained their lead in the past four rankings, as opposed to the Raila-Martha Karua duo in a survey conducted between Saturday, July 23 to Thursday, July 28, from a sample size of 29,857 across the 47 counties.

Roots Party presidential candidate George Wajackoyah is third with 1.2 per cent followed by the Agano party’s Waihiga Mwaure at 0.2 per cent. Raila, however, maintained the lead in the Coast region, with 51.7 per cent against Ruto’s 42.5 per cent. In Northern Kenya, the DP is ahead with 53.7 per cent, and Raila is 43.2 per cent.