Joho’s rising stature in Raila party stirs debate on national politics

MOMBASA-RAILA-ARRIVES FOR ODM ANNIVERSARY; ODM Party Leader Raila Odinga, flanked by his Deputy Hassan Joho addresses local at Changmwe in Mombasa on Friday,09th September,2016 evening. This was upon his arrival for the party's 10th Anniversary celebration.PHOTO BY MAARUFU MOHAMED/STANDARD

Mombasa Governor Ali Hassan Joho’s growing dominance in ODM emerged recently when he hosted party leader Raila Odinga, 14 governors and dozens of MPs.

A fiery orator, who has established his credentials as a critic of the Jubilee administration, Joho did not disappoint last weekend at the ODM’s 10th anniversary celebration when together with Kilifi Governor Amason Kingi, they declared war on the ruling coalition ahead of next year’s General Election.

Joho, who has been politically rising steadily since 2007 when he won the Kisauni parliamentary seat, acquired new stature among ODM supporters when he began to take on Jubilee in 2014 through to last year when he launched broadsides against President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy William Ruto. His credentials peaked when he and Kingi wrestled Jubilee and denied it the Malindi parliamentary seat in the March 7 by-election.

Analysts suggest that Joho’s rise has, in part, been caused by Jubilee’s perceived persecution of the former Assistant minister as exemplified by the state’s withdrawal of his and Kingi’s security and licensed guns after the by-election defeat.

In recent years, Joho, who has faced a host of legal problems since becoming governor in 2013, has sharpened his attacks on Jubilee, increasingly not shying away from launching direct attacks on Uhuru and Ruto, a quality he has shared with Kingi and Raila.

But analysts also point out that Joho, who has accused the Jubilee regime of seeking to destroy the Coast economy, benefits from his oratory skills, organisational and mobilisation capacity as well as immense family wealth.

He has publicly vowed to ensure Jubilee loses the entire Coast including Lamu and Kwale where the ruling coalition has been making in-roads. Some observers believe he could fit into Raila’s shoes should the ODM leader retire from politics.

Although Joho is deputy party leader like Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya, he has appeared more steadfast, comparatively, in defence of the party and its policies. He has evidently established his credentials as a national leader.

His political heart tricks are seen to have overshadowed CORD co-principals Moses Wetang’ula and Kalonzo Musyoka since he has continued to steal the public limelight as a brave politician frequently challenging the status quo in public.

Kilifi Senator Stewart Madzayo says Joho’s style of politics has helped ODM get many seats in Coast and helped to deliver the Malindi seat to the party after camping their for more than a month.

BIGGER SAY

“Joho’s style of politics has been one of bravery like that of the late Karisa Maitha. It has raised his national stature. He helped delivered 22 major political seats to ODM in 2013 and also to regain the Malindi parliamentary seat in the March by-election. Coast region even deserved a bigger say in CORD because of his performance,” Madzayo noted. According to Madzayo, Coast will present Joho to Kenyans as a presidential candidate in 2022 following his ability to unite communities.

If Joho remain patient and loyal to Raila, he would easily fit into his shoes and lead the party, Madzayo added.

Rabai MP William Kamoti said Joho has made huge sacrifices for the party and achieved good results.

“Joho has the goodwill of Kenyans from all ethnic backgrounds which has motivated him a lot. He has opposed groupings in terms of the Swahili, Mijikenda or upcountry people because this does not help us. I will personally be the first one to vote for Joho,” Kamoti said.

Mombasa Women Rep Mishi Mboko said ODM has remained strong at the Coast under Joho as deputy party leader. She said recent defections, including that of Kwale Governor Salim Mvurya, has not had impact on ODM because those who have left were not the pillars of the party. “Raila Odinga’s team at the Coast under Joho is not shaken.

 Even now there are many people scrambling for ODM ticket in Kwale County. The Malindi by-election victory demonstrated our strength in this region,” Mboko said, adding Joho’s team will, like in 2013, sweep the board again.

Political pundits say the Mombasa governor has the potential to become a top national leader if he continue with the same strategy and agility. They, however, cautioned him against overdoing his political tricks.

Pwani University lecturer Halim Shauri argues Joho is establishing himself as a kingpin of Coast and national politics.

“Joho has used his positions as Mombasa governor and deputy ODM party leader to fight for the interest of his party. His ability to lead the party to victory in the Malindi by-election, his agility and courage to face the Jubilee administration and his vision to be President in 2022 have demonstrated that he is a national leader,” Prof Shauri said.

According to him, Joho’s challenge would be galvanising support outside Coast.

He said the Mombasa governor’s meticulous rise has caused political casualties, including Kwale governor Salim Mvurya who decamped to Jubilee after sensing that he would not be given the ODM ticket in 2017.

“Mvurya was groomed by Joho to become governor and vice chairman of the Council of Governors and chairman of the Jumuiya Ya Kaunti Za Pwani. But as Joho rose, he acted in a manner that saw Mvurya quit for fear he would not get a nomination in ODM,” Shauri argued.

He also noted that Kilifi North MP Gideon Mung’aro had earlier become a casualty of a powerful Joho.

MASSIVE CLOUT

He added: “Joho has to galvanise support in Coast and maintain his clout which is constantly under political threat. He has to maintain a national image and display political maturity. He has to do serious image building and rebranding as a nationalist,” said the don.

Another analyst Ms Maimuna Mwidau said the exit of Cabinet Secretary Najib Balala from the Coast political scene definitely opened the doors for Joho to grow and prosper politically. As a result, she observed, Joho has mobilised the region leaders to stay put in ODM.

According to her, the governor’s growth could be attributed to his ability to challenge the status quo and being bold and publicly challenging national leaders in defence of the county and the region.

She also noted Joho had shown his strength by defeating Jubilee operatives in the Malindi by- election.

“To some, he has been an underdog, always being a target of the system thus gaining empathy of the local populace...our son is targeted syndrom has worked for him,” Ms Mwidau argued. She also cautioned that the future could be tough for Joho if he did not play his politics well, noting that many a times such brave characters ended up with mud on the face due to their inability to read the political signs well and in time.

“This means he must learn to be flexible and work with what benefits him and the region too. If the region does not benefit in anyway, that will be the beginning of his down fall. It has happened to others before him so it is nothing new in politics,” she argued. Pwani university lecturer Hassan Mwakimako said Joho was trying to fit into Raila’s shoes as his potential successor.

“His ability to mobilise resources for the party and the fact that Luo Nyanza has not groomed someone to replace Raila has worked well for Joho as his star is rising. Come 2022 Joho may be presented as fresh presidential candidate with a national stature,” said Dr Mwakimako.

Dr Mwakimako argued that Joho’s political future looks bright unless ODM breaks up or the current clout is seriously challenged.