Defectors face hard times in next election

Only three out of 10 Opposition supporters would vote back their leader if he or she defected to Jubilee.

According to the latest survey by Ipsos, 71 per cent of CORD supporters feel such MPs are "not likely" to retain their seats in next year's elections if they vie on a ruling party's ticket.

However, a similar proportion of Jubilee supporters, 72 per cent, are of the contrary view, arguing that the leaders are 'likely' to win the election.

Respondents suggested the main reason for CORD leaders defecting to Jubilee is 'greed and personal benefit', contrary to Jubilee supporters who cited development as the main reason.

Almost 60 per cent of CORD supporters (57) cited greed as the main reason for their leaders affiliating themselves with Jubilee, with 14 per cent seeing the defection as a way of increasing their chances of re-election.

Only 18 per cent of the Opposition supporters believe defecting was for development purposes.

"As far as we know, there is no single MP who has resigned to defect. But what we know since the Kericho by-election is that Jubilee has been in the forefront in making sure every Opposition leader at least associate themselves verbally, if not physically, with the ruling administration," said Ipsos lead researcher Tom Wolf.

With regard to CORD MPs who have remained 'steadfast' in the Opposition, 90 per cent of the supporters are confident of their re-election while less than three-quarters of Jubilee supporters, 71 per cent, expect such outcomes.

Slightly over half of all respondents (54 per cent) believe their re-election to be 'very likely'.

"But who knows if these leaders will actually win? They first have to get nominations and we all know the politics around it," said Mr Wolf.

But one reason seen across the country on why Opposition leaders are leaning towards the ruling administration is to get more public service positions.

This was revealed recently by a section of Opposition leaders from Kisii County who went to meet President Uhuru Kenyatta on matters 'development', where increase in public service positions for persons in their regions was tabled.