Many presidents, like Ruto, have had a tough first term

President William Ruto addresses residents of Suneka, Kisii County. [PCS]

History offers a generous consolation to unpopular first-term presidents.  Consider the precedents. In 1983, Ronald Reagan's approval rating slumped to 41 per cent, battered by recession and resistance to his agenda. A year later, he won 49 states. Despite the Iran-Contra affair, he left office in 1989 with a 63 per cent approval rating, and a reputation that has only appreciated since.

Bill Clinton's first term was hardly smoother. Stymied by legislative gridlock, scandal, and a historic loss of the House of Representatives in 1994, his presidency was widely written off as overreaching and over. He won re-election in 1996, presided over a roaring labour market and the first balanced budgets in decades, and departed with 66 per cent approval; the highest end-of-term rating since the Second World War.