Mambo ni matatu: Tata's woes following a familiar script

Sugar and cement billionaire Jaswant Rai.[Boniface Okendo, Standard]

One afternoon in 2023 at a dusty market known as Shianda, an angry William Ruto read the Riot Act to ‘thieves, cartels and matapeli’ in the sugar industry. He was on a political tour of Kakamega County. Ruto was particularly incensed by a certain Jaswant Singh Rai who he accused of stalling government efforts and reforms in the sugar industry through layers of court cases. Jaswant was locked in a fierce court battle with one Sarbjit Singh Rai over the control of Mumias Sugar Company. The president preferred the second Singh Rai over the first Singh Rai. That was when he made the now (in)famous quote, aimed at Singh Rai number one; ‘Mambo ni matatu; wahame Kenya, ama nitawaweka jela, ama wasafiri waende mbinguni’, which loosely translates, deportation jail or a direct ticket to heaven.

Now, Jaswant and Sarbjit are biological billionaire brothers, being sons of the late Tarlochan Singh Rai, who built a vast empire in agriculture, timber, and manufacturing across East Africa.

Jaswant leads the Kenya-based Rai Group, which holds massive interests in timber, cement, edible oils, and a dominant share of Kenya's sugar sector through companies like West Kenya Sugar, Kabras Sugar, Sukari Industries, and Olepito Sugar.

Sarbjit founded the Uganda-based Sarrai Group, a conglomerate with extensive operations in sugar, manufacturing, and real estate spanning Uganda, Malawi, and Kenya.

The brothers had locked horns in a high-stakes battle over the lease and control of Mumias Sugar Company. Shortly after the ‘Mambo ni Matatu’ threat, intense pressure and a brief, mysterious abduction incident, Jaswant bowed to the demands and withdrew all his applications challenging the Mumias Sugar 20-year lease.

Briefly thereafter, interesting events unfolded. The same Jaswant, who had previously irked the President, mysteriously won a 30-year lease of Nzoia Sugar Company. The local leadership of Bungoma County have dismissed the lease as a very bad deal, describing it as a sale in disguise. But Jaswanttook over Nzoia, moved with speed and registered a whole new outfit known as ‘Nzoia Sugar Company, 2025 Limited’. And just like that, the “sugar baron, sugar cartel and tapeli” who had so offended the President was awarded a lopsided 30-year lease deal of a government parastatal.

A coincidence was happening at Muhoroni Sugar Company where a “strategic partner” called West Valley Sugar Company Limited, a member of Kipchimchim Group of Companies, took over Muhoroni Sugar Company, styled as ‘Muhoroni Sugar Company 2025 Limited’ in a 30-year lease deal with the government.

Exit Rai and Rai. Enter Tata Chemicals. On September 4, 2026 while on a political tour of Kajiado County, an angry Dr Ruto read the Riot Act to Tata Chemicals. He ordered the company to cease operations at their Magadi Soda plant, pack up and leave the country. ‘Mambo ni matatu’: Cease operations, pack up, leave the country. He claimed the company's long-term extraction of natural resources at Lake Magadi provided insufficient economic benefits to the country; that despite a century-old history of resource extraction in Kajiado County, the company only exported raw soda ash instead of processing the mineral locally to build domestic manufacturing and glass-making industries; that Tata had failed to create domestic manufacturing jobs for Kenyans; that the resource extraction agreement had failed to properly transform or uplift Kajiado County and the wider national economy. Mischievously, prior to the President's directive of pack-and-leave, the Ministry of Mining had already suspended operations citing compliance issues.

The President knows or ought to have known, that the Constitution forbids him to unilaterally or arbitrarily expel a legally registered international company. He knows that any attempt to shut down or deport a business must operate strictly within the bounds of the law, statutory regulations, and constitutional protections. The Constitution sets constitutional limits on executive authority. Article 40 protects the property right. State cannot arbitrarily deprive any person, including corporate bodies, of their property.

Article 47 provides that if a company faces regulatory action, the government must follow due process. The company has a right to be heard and given reasons for any adverse administrative decision. Article 10 prohibits the President from governing by decree. Presidential directives cannot override existing Acts of Parliament, such as the Companies Act, the Investment Promotion Act, or the Foreign Investments Protection Act.

As expected, the Ruto order triggered a chain reaction.

Opposition chiefs accused the President of being erratic, undermining international investment laws, and scaring away foreign direct investment to serve known personal interests.

Political commentators raised suspicions that the abrupt expulsion was secretly tied to recent discoveries of valuable lithium deposits and oil prospects within the Lake Magadi exploration block.

It caused immediate market and investor anxiety. The directive sent shockwaves through financial markets, causing Tata Chemicals' share price to fall over 2 per cent. The Kenyan operation is highly consequential to the multinational, contributing roughly 6 per cent of Tata Chemicals' total EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortisation).

The Kenya Chamber of Mines and independent economic analysts warned that dramatic "pack-and- go" orders create regulatory instability, severely damaging Kenya’s global reputation among long-term capital investors.

The local communities expressed deep anxiety over the shutdown. Beyond mining soda ash, Tata Chemicals funds four local schools, operates a regional hospital, treats and distributes fresh water, and runs a subsidised passenger railway, all essential to the local economy.

Following the expected public and economic uproar, Ruto calmly walked back on his initial announcement that a replacement investor had already been chosen. He shifted the government’s stance, declaring that the Magadi soda ash mining contract would instead be subjected to a competitive public bidding process.

Moving away from total eviction, Mining Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho met with Tata Chemicals executives to form “a high-level technical committee”. The group is tasked with resolving the core operational disputes, which involve unpaid land rates, mining royalties, and the demand for local value-addition factories.

The script sounds familiar, no? A threat, high-level boardroom discussions, and a strategic partnership. Tata Chemicals have very likely welcomed a new strategic partner. Mambo ni?