Rough push for Dar’s interests cost Magufuli global chances

John Pombe Magufuli (pictured) was a man of mystery and his death reinforced the mystery image. President of the Republic of Tanzania for five years, he was starting his second term when death came calling, paving way for his Vice President Samia Suluhu Hassan to become Tanzania’s first woman president. She was his running mate in 2015 and 2020 campaigns.

Magufuli liked being unorthodox, wanted to transform Tanzania economically, increase wealth production, and lift Tanzania out of poverty. He was to do that by forcing change in the work ethics.

In pushing for Tanzania’s interests, irrespective of who it hurt, Magufuli at times appeared self-destructive in deeds and utterances. This in turn negatively affected Tanzania’s regional and global standing and made him unable to take advantage of global realignment to position Tanzania as a significant player.

Tanzania is the largest country, in terms of territorial and demographic size, partly in southern and partly in eastern Africa. It is a blend of two pre-independence geo-political entities, Tanganyika and Zanzibar. It is also a product of colonial hybridity featuring Arabs, Germans and Britons dominance on various African peoples. The German influence explains large Lutheran religious following in parts of mainland Tanzania. In addition, inherent British-German rivalry still lingers to affect the way Tanzania relates to those whose colonial experience is primarily British. The British’s attempt to force its colonies in eastern Africa into a single administrative unit failed because of fear of domination by Kenya. That fear, rooted in colonial experience, still hinders close cooperation.

Tanzania’s fear of Kenya’s dominance, which young Magufuli probably imbibed and internalised, is also grounded in different post-colonial ideological leanings and liberation images. In colonial times, due to the Mau War’s global impact, Kenya was the hub of anti-colonial liberation movements in Africa. It acquired an anti-colonial revolutionary image that stretched to post-colonial times. To maintain that image while addressing global power realities, Kenya issued its 1965 Sessional Paper Number 10 on African Socialism that was undisguised capitalism in socialistic dressing. Tanzania responded two years later, with its 1967 Arusha Declaration that virtually declared ideological war on capitalism. This declaration matched the emerging Tanzania image, in post-colonial times, as the hub of liberation movements mainly in Southern Africa. Under the tutelage of Mwalimu Julius Nyerere, its acquired ideology, a hybrid socialism called ‘Ujamaa’, spread to those in the remaining white colonies.

A sense of liberation rivalry evolved between Kenya and Tanzania. At times, the ideological rivalry deteriorated into name calling and border closures in the 1970s. Magufuli carried those rivalries into his presidency.

Unlike Nyerere, Magufuli was not a philosopher. He was simply a chemist who treated Tanzania as his socio-economic laboratory. He became excessive in clamping down on disagreements or media operations. He limited his influence in and beyond Tanzania in part because he was in denial. This made him an object of geopolitical curiosity in a time of global realignment.

Global realignment takes place whether a particular country likes it or not. Magufuli’s Tanzania was caught in the geopolitical realignment bond and seemed lost. Among the forces of realignment are the epidemics, especially coronavirus that has devastated economies and reorganised lifestyles. Coronavirus forced people to change travel habits, ways of schooling and socialising, and how they think about security. Whether or not American and Chinese science experimenters let the virus loose has since become secondary to the need for common global effort to contain the virus and its new mutations.

In his dogmatic ways, Magufuli, just like Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil, Donald Trump of the US and Pierre Nkruzinza of Burundi, ignored the seriousness of coronavirus as a force of socio-economic-political destruction. They took pride in defying visible reality which in turn reduced the ability of their countries to reposition themselves in a changing world. Each of the leaders reportedly contracted Covid-19 along with thousands of their citizens which negatively affected their economies and believability standing.

Magufuli had dreams of making Tanzania a great power in Africa but, to do that, he needed to deal with internal dynamics that tended to pull the country behind. First is the internal problem of Zanzibar as to whether it is fully or just partially Tanzanian in thought and in action. People in the islands of Zanzibar and Pemba feel culturally and religiously different from their fellow citizens in the mainland. Different cultural and religious trappings have not quite blended the citizens of Tanzania into one. Second, was growing class distinctions in Tanzania as it gradually gravitated away from Nyerere’s Ujamaa political economy and embraced aspects of capitalism with Tanzanian characteristics. Magufuli wanted to address that difference and won the election in 2015 in part because he appeared to represent a disillusioned underclass, appearing like a saviour.

While tackling internal challenges, even before the outbreak of coronavirus, Magufuli had to deal with Tanzania’s position at two levels, regional and global. At the regional level, Magufuli wanted Tanzania to stop playing economic catch-up to Kenya and to become a force in eastern and southern Africa. One of the challenges before him, however, was that he had inherited a geopolitical identity problem in that Tanzania appeared to be unsure of its stand and was, therefore, caught up between the South and the East. Two of its recent histories appeared to tear it apart. First, it had a long history, which started in colonial days, of economic and service cooperation with other East African countries. Second, it developed a post-colonial sentimental and ideological history as leader of ‘liberation’ movements in the remnants of white colonies in southern Africa. Often, the ideological history trumps the cooperation history.

Magufuli had peculiar habits in relating to neighbouring countries, particularly Kenya. He appeared to ignore the cooperation history in eastern Africa, despite Arusha being the headquarters of the East African Community. He often joined other EAC members, except Kenya and Rwanda, in failing to remit full fees to EAC operations. Failures of the members to pay their EAC dues meant that they had reduced independence because EAC relied on extra-continental interests to finance its operations. Magufuli left Tanzania with its split geopolitical identity intact. All these, instead of adding to his prestige, added to his regional image of ridicule. 

Magufuli was a tragic man; potentially great but dogmatism made him fall short of greatness. He had tried to be assertive and had attracted global curiosity but seemed subdued in his last days. He questioned the Covid science and advocated the use of Madagascar concoctions to fight coronavirus.

Magufuli’s death provides opportunity for new beginnings in Tanzania and the Eastern African region with Samia Suluhu as the sixth president. She has opportunity to advance Tanzania’s regional and global interests beyond where Magufuli left. 

-Prof Munene is a senior associate, Horn International Institute for Strategic Studies

[email protected]