Queries over ODM strategy as Raila blows hot and cold over Kenya Kwanza deal

President William Ruto (right), former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Rarieda MP Otiende Amollo and a section of ODM leaders arrive for the funeral service of the late George Oduor, at Ramba High of in Siaya County, on April 12, 2025. [File, Standard] ODM leader Raila Odinga is blowing hot and cold over the political agreement with the Kenya Kwanza government as internal revolt threatens to tear apart the party. While ODM insiders believe that the voices of dissent are a strategic move by the party's leadership to maintain grip inside the government and opposition, there are fears that the development is threatening to split the party. Recent developments, as well as the sibling rivalry within the party, have forced the leadership to assure members that all is well. On Friday, Raila, through his secretariat, sought to downplay the infighting within the party and urged members to exercise restraint and civility even as they discuss the political agreement with Kenya Kwanza. The critics have been vocal about their displeasure with the political deal between ODM leader Raila Odinga and President William Ruto and want the party to exercise caution as a section of their supporters and other Kenyans express reservations about how the country is being run. For a man who has already declared that the Orange party will have a candidate on the ballot in 2027 and is keen to keep his support bases intact, observers believe Raila is trying to play safe. They believe the divergent views have been engineered by the party leadership as part of political power play to keep allies in Kenya Kwanza close and supporters intact. This, perhaps, explains Raila's silence about his allies public criticism of the broad-based government. So bold are the critics that some of the statements against Ruto's regime have been made in Raila's presence. For instance, during the burial of the ODM leader's bodyguard George Oduor, the party Secretary General Edwin Sifuna openly questioned the memorandum of understanding with UDA, and alleged that some components were not being implemented appropriately. On Friday, Raila, through his spokesperson Dennis Onyango acknowledged that the party leadership was monitoring closely the conversations around the agreement and the relevant organs will harmonise the divergent views at an appropriate time. A senior party official told The Standard that they are not keeping all political eggs in one basket and thus need to encourage voices critical of the government's excesses. "ODM is a democratic party and we cannot silence those who are pointing out flaws that need to be corrected. We did not join the government to push aside the interests of ordinary Kenyans," said the official. The brigade leading the criticism of Ruto's regime includes Siaya Governor James Orengo and Sifuna. Orengo, who has come under fire from some party members, maintains that the party should be wary about praising Kenya Kwanza regime, arguing that the country could be headed to the dogs if leaders fail to keep the government in check. Days after Siaya MCAs dismissed claims of the plot to impeach the county chief, a group of grassroots leaders and residents of Kisumu threw their weight behind Orengo. They said that the party supports democracy and cannot take action against Orengo for speaking his mind. The residents led by Joseph Kotina of the Kisumu Bunge la Wanainchi, defended the governor, saying there is no fault in the statements he has been making against the government. "As people of Kisumu we are supporting this broad-based government but it doesn't mean thatwhatever was wrong is now right," Kotina said. They maintained that the Siaya governor has only been reminding the government that it is not implementing what is in their ten-point agenda for cooperation between ODM and the UDA. "During his speech at George Oduor's funeral in Siaya, Orengo was reminding the government that whatever you signed, you're not following to the latter and that's the truth. As Kisumu people we believe that Orengo has not said anything wrong," said Shem Ochuodho, chairman of the Boda boda operators in Kisumu. Another senior ODM official said that the sibling rivalry and the supremacy contest could complicate Raila's relationship with Kenya Kwanza. The leader argued that while Orengo's comments represent the views of a significant number of party officials, his rivals have twisted them into a political contest in an attempt to throw him off the cards for a second term in office. According to some observers, the revolt in ODM can be viewed as a strategic move by the party to play to both sides of the coin. Constitutional Lawyer Clifford Obiero argued that the notion of a broad-based government can indeed be viewed from multiple angles. He opined that it could be perceived by some as a strategic maneuver by Raila to retain influence in both the government and opposition, thereby ensuring his political relevance. "On the other hand, there are concerns that this approach could potentially dilute the strength and independence of the ODM party, which has traditionally been a major opposition force in Kenyan politics," Lawyer Obiero said. Political analyst Mark Bichachi opined that ODM has a history of being in opposition, and has loyal supporters for that course. "In places like Nairobi, ODM supporters are notorious for being strongly opposition. ODM may not outwardly rebel, but there will be those like Sifuna," Bichachi said. He pointed out that ODM has two sides, one that is in government and one that is in opposition, causing confusion even in opposition itself. Bichachi argued that the delicate balance here involves maintaining the integrity and independence of political parties while engaging constructively with the government. A section of leaders and observers, however, believe that those opposed to the broad-based government are opposing Raila. But unlike past perceived rebels, the ODM leadership is reluctant to either summon or openly call them out, further fueling speculation that the revolt is part of a broader strategy to checkmate Kenya Kwanza. Kisumu Senator Tom Ojienda said the decision by Raila to join the broad-based government has stabilized the country and must be lauded as a step in the right direction. He thinks there is need for Raila to keep his lieutenants in check so that they speak in one voice in support of the broad-based government. "Raila's lieutenants should pull in the direction that supports the Ruto government because we are in there. We don't intend to leave anyway. We intend to support this government and ensure it delivers to the people of Kenya. That is Raila's focus," Prof. Ojienda said. Rangwe MP Lilian Gogo said that Raila is unpredictable. "Raila doesn't think in terms of inside or outside government. Raila thinks of what is good for the country. Let his foot soldiers be!" she says. Nyatike MP Tom Odege insisted that the people of Nyanza are fully behind Ruto and Raila. "The few discordant voices are still just in the hangover of opposition politics that we have played the longest, they will soon come to," MP Odege says. Strategic and Political Communications Consultant Barack Muluka thinks that Raila has eventually won the war against himself. "In effect, he has always wanted to be a part of the system. But there has always been the spirit of liberation fighting within him and holding him back," Dr. Muluka said. Like the character called Winston Smith in George Orwell's book titled 1984, Muluka argued that Raila has finally overcome the liberator and democrat within. The Strategic and Political Communications Consultant said that as a result, ODM is split into two. He believes that free-riding opportunists who are the new worship and praise team are happy to join Raila as co-system people. "Then there are those who have truly believed in liberation and democracy. They can't believe what is happening. These are now the so-called rebels. The opportunists are threatening them with consequences," Dr Muluka said. Constitutional lawyer Joshua Nyamori thinks that Raila has been very clear about his position that, for the sake of the nation and to ensure that there is peace and stability to push the reforms that were contained in the Nadco report, he will work with the president. Lawyer Nyamori said that out of this, Raila has influence in Cabinet appointments and has been supporting government programs. However, he said, this has not stopped the ODM leader from pointing out what he does not agree with. "The decisions he has made and communicated have been taken through ODM structures. That means that he speaks and acts on behalf of the entire ODM. He even went round the country to consult with various stakeholders before signing the MoU," Lawyer Nyamori said. The lawyer believes that the move by Orengo and Sifuna is a rebellion against what Raila is doing and as approved by party structures and a majority of supporters.

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