Why referendum push may trigger fallout in Jubilee

The murmurs triggered by the March 9 handshake between President Uhuru Kenyatta and NASA leader Raila Odinga are snowballing into a major fallout in Jubilee.

With the rebirth of change-the-constitution movement, emergence of an assertive president protective of the handshake, advent of succession caucuses and the stomping of feet by Deputy President William Ruto, the heir apparent to Kenyatta, the writing is on the wall.

In a span of days, both the President and his Deputy have taken different trajectories as far as Kenya’s political future is concerned; the former through a new-found ally backing constitutional changes endorsed by the church, and the latter virulently opposing the move.

Pitch for their sides

In the wake of the two disparate moves, their troops are going flat out to pitch for their sides. On Ruto’s side, a fresh caucus of young MPs spread across all regions is taking it upon themselves to brand their man a David facing Goliath in succession politics.

“Let the people decide,” Jubilee Vice Chairman and Uhuru’s long-time friend David Murathe told the Sunday Standard when asked where he belonged in the new change-the-constitution craze.

Murathe’s views are unlikely to differ with the President he has worked with for many years.

In a tough address at Kenneth Matiba’s funeral service in Murang’a on Thursday, a day after Ruto tore into Raila’s constitutional amendment proposals, Uhuru made it clear that he was determined to side by Raila, despite resistance from close allies.

“We will continue to walk together with Raila. Whoever has a question should ask us rather than undermine us,” he said and, while signing out a farewell to Matiba, added: “Like Raila has said, let him (Matiba) greet our fathers who have gone before us, and tell them that although things are tough for us, we will correct what has not been corrected, and then follow them.”

During the Murang’a event, Uhuru also declared that leadership is not the easy road travelled.

“Uongozi sio karatasi eti tumekubaliana hivi na hivi,” he said in comments that could go both ways to Ruto and Raila’s sides.

The old staggers of Central politics, it seems, are supportive of the direction the President has taken while the novices are placing their bets with the DP. The latter group is however treading their support for DP with caution.

"I would say with the handshake between Uhuru and Raila, this is the most opportune moment to consider constitutional reforms so that we don't plunge into a political crisis from the buildup of momentum for this clamor," Nyeri Senator Ephraim Maina tells the Sunday Standard.

Maina is even willing to embrace Bomas-like convention to isolate the constitutional issues that need a review. But he need not worry about the isolation of issues as both Uhuru and Raila have already done so.

In their “Building Bridges” joint statement, the duo identified ethnic antagonism and division, lack of national ethos, inclusivity, devolution, divisive election, security, corruption, shared prosperity and responsibilities and rights as the issues requiring review.

Shared objectives

“HE President Uhuru Kenyatta and HE Raila Odinga have agreed to roll out a programme that will implement their shared objectives. An official launch shall be held soon,” reads the statement.

But the Ruto caucus, propelled by party officials like National Assembly Majority Leader Aden Duale, cannot wait for the launch, which is set to follow the Wednesday’s State of the Nation Address.

“We have seen the recent happenings in the political circles and we do not want to be caught unaware. We have to work smart,” says Cherangany MP Joshua Kutuny who is the leader of the caucus.

Kuttuny says the fact is that the political camaraderie between Uhuru and Raila has changed the political arithmetic in the country and sent Ruto’s side back to the drawing board.

“Ruto is a commoner of humble beginnings. We hope that this message will resonate well with the majority in our hustler nation. He personifies an ordinary Kenyan man. His triumph will represent that of other wananchi,” Kuttuny says.

It is the same message Duale is advancing: “Through Ruto, Kenya can learn two lessons, that a son of a common man can rise to any heights and also that politics of loyalty pays. He has and will remain loyal to President Kenyatta until he clears his final term.”

Duale said this is the message Jubilee leaders will take to Kenyans.

On Thursday, President Kenyatta appeared to pour scorn on this type of branding while pitching for unity and respect of one another. He told the mourners who also included Ruto that he did not choose to be born of Mzee Jomo Kenyatta.

“It was all God’s plan, I did not choose. If I had a choice I’d probably have wanted to be born in Murang’a the home of heroes. I did not make any application. I just found myself born in Ichaweri in Gatundu. My parents know how they met each other. We cannot hate on people on account of God’s plans,” he said.

A member of the young legislators' caucus for Ruto, Kikuyu MP Kiamni Ichungwah, said the young lawmakers in Jubilee will use their political energy to see to it that Ruto remains strong all the way to the contest in 2022.

“We have started laying grounds, we are focused and committed,” said Ichungwah.

But National Assembly Minority Whip Junet Mohamed dismissed assertions that the new clamor for constitutional reform is hinged on 2022 succession politics.

“We are looking at issues far broader than personalities, including political inclusivity, strengthening the Judiciary and solidifying devolution that may actually result in helping Ruto become a better president in 2022,” said Mohamed.