Opposition leader may have shot himself in the foot

NASA leader Raila Odinga during an interview with The Standard at his residence in Karen, Nairobi. [Elvis Ogina, Standard]

Fame and Ignominy are the names of two border towns divided from each other by an indeterminate strip of ‘no man’ s land.’ Despite the fact that they belong to two different countries, no visas are required to cross from one town to the other.

There are no customs officers to enforce ad valorem duties nor does Border Patrol exist to deter illegal immigrants as is the case in some countries.

Whereas it is exceptionally easy to cross over from Fame to Ignominy, the reverse, from Ignominy to Fame is a slow arduous task fraught with great risk and littered with the detritus of those who failed to make the crossing. 

Raila Amolo Odinga is arguably the greatest “come back kid” of Kenya’s tumultuous post-independence politics. He has demonstrated repeatedly an uncanny ability to come back from political oblivion to current relevancy.

Perhaps even more than former president Daniel arap Moi, he has consistently occupied the country’s national psyche, attracting in equal measure adulation bordering on fanaticism on one hand from his supporters and opprobrium from his critics who see him as the bogeyman responsible for every conceivable misfortune that bedevils Kenya. 

Elected president

The elections of 2017 have been unlike any other in terms of extended duration and the  balkanization of the county along ethnic lines. Kenyatta is the duly elected President.

Raila does not recognise Jubilee’s electoral win. And he is supported by 14 county governments who have voted to establish what they call people’s sssemblies. This is to ostensibly bring national decision making to the grassroots of the nation.

The Jubilee administration sees this as a nefarious plot by Raila’s NASA brigade to seize power through the back door.

None less than the State’s Attorney General has pronounced himself abundantly clear that he deems any attempt to swear Raila as president of these assemblies as nothing short of treason.

Has Raila for once, lost the plot? Has he bitten off more than he can chew? Has he, like the proverbial cat with nine live used up all his “come-backs?” These are the questions foremost on every Kenyan’s lips.

And there is a sense of foreboding as each day passes, a feeling that violent confrontation is in the offing when Raila is sworn in as his die-hard supporters have vowed.

The Government has in recent times demonstrated a proclivity for violent  suppression of what it considers illegal. It has warned that no exceptions will be for Raila’s swearing-in. 

There are mixed reactions all over the country. There are those who heap quotidian  latitudes on Raila.

To them, he represents hope and inclusion in the sharing of the nation’s resources. 

Then there are others who blame Raila for the current state of unease that has contributed to the downturn of the economy.

To these, the Government is a tad too slow in cracking the whip on Raila, to consign him once and for all to permanent retirement in the town of Ignominy. Lastly, there are moderates from both sides of the divide pushing for dialogue. 

Shifts

Going by events on the international scene, the current global dispensation does not favour Raila. Not if he takes on the route of violence with government. This is why.

Whereas in times past, the West indulged and actively supported confrontation with recalcitrant governments, policy has since shift to the pursuance of individual national interests. 

A blind eye is turned as long as those committing atrocities do not tamper with Western interest. There is no more ‘human rights’ or ‘democratic space’ as a precondition for issuance of aid.

In addition, the West has problems of its own. Spain is battling with the restive Catalan region, Britain with Brexit while America under Donald Trump has an ‘America First’ policy. Germany is yet to have a government in place.

Internal problems

That the West has given lip service to the deaths of tens of victims of election related violence in Kenya speaks volumes about her levels of engagement.

It is mute to the cries of the bereaved and just stone deaf to the screams of the Rohingya as it is to secessionists in Catalonia. The tacit statement made here is that we are on our own.

We no longer have recourse to the international community for violation of basic human rights.

Any swearing-in ceremony will be resisted by the law. That is the Government’s promise. The events of the last six months are telling.

There is a predilection to anarchy by a section of Raila’s supporters and a propensity to unleash unmitigated terror by agents of the state. How Raila acquits himself in the face of this will determine whether he goes down in history as resident of Fame or Ignominy. 

Mr Khafafa, Vice Chairman of The Kenya-Turkey Business Council.