Ruto's popularity rising abroad, but his credibility is ebbing at home

President Denis Sassou Nguesso hosts his Kenyan counterpart William Ruto at Palais Du Peuple. [PCS]

There currently exists stiff competition involving individuals who seek recognition as world leaders. They want to be independent in world affairs decision making, tend to be daringly forceful, take initiative, and project ‘don’t care’ attitudes when asserting purported national and regional interests. In the Conceptual West, for instance, Emmanuel Macron of France wants that leadership and appears different from the rest of the West. Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky, in contrast, struggles to be ‘the West’.

Zelensky, resilient and good at acting, claims he represents European civilisation. He receives much encouragement from the Conceptual West, has proven that Ukrainians can fight, and has embarrassed Russia’s Vladimir Putin into using unreliable mercenaries. His problem in searching for recognition as a world leader in Western capitals, however, is that visible racist attitude and behaviour within Ukraine makes him unconvincing outside the West. As he receives praises and watches Ukraine turn into testing ground for new weapons, he acquires the image of a proxy.

Outside the West, competitors include Narendra Modi of India, Recep Erdogan of Turkey, Lula Da Silva of Brazil, and Kenya’s William Ruto. Modi, a student of Kautilya’s Athashastra, comes up as a modern combination of Kautilya inspired Chandragupta Maurya and Jawaharlal Nehru. He wants to chart his own path in a power reorienting world and balances conflicting forces among neighbours and rival powers, Moscow with Washington, and China with Pakistan. He went to Washington, received state treatment, addressed the US Congress, and joked about Vice President Kamala Harris having Indian ancestry. He then went to Moscow to tighten ties with Putin and discuss the BRICS currency system, an alternative to the dollar monopoly. Although he solidly champions BRICS, together with Putin  and Xi Jinping of China, he appears acceptable across the geopolitical divide.

Turkey’s Erdogan, not as acceptable as Modi, is a geopolitically frustrated man. Since the European Union ignored Turkey’s wish to be ‘European’ and treated it as ‘jungle’ instead of ‘garden’, Erdogan found three ways of attracting attention. First, he developed dreams of ‘Neo-Ottoman’ that would stretch to East Africa where Turkey has a military base in Mogadishu and its navy patrols the Somali coast.

Second, he lures troubled regimes into his orbit by engaging in ‘drone diplomacy’ that avails drones to leaders to defeat their ‘insurgents’. In return, he gains in three ways, culturally as vulnerable countries close Hizmet related schools that he dislikes, commercially as business opportunities increase, and establishes military bases. Third, Erdogan flexes geopolitical muscles and increases his stature as a defender of Islamic interests.

Lula is also making waves. A 21st socialist along with Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, Lula built Brazil’s industrial base, retired from politics, went to jail, and then bounced back into the presidency. A force in the Global South, he champions de-dollarisation and attracts other Latin American power houses into the BRICS. His effort to mediate the Global North proxy war in Ukraine geopolitically increases his stature.

Like Lula, Ruto wants de-dollarisation. He is good in international showmanship and loud in pan-Africanist rhetoric. As Macron seemingly helped organise a cheering crowd in Paris for Ruto to address, his credentials as African spokesman rose. He, however, loses because he reportedly ignores advice, his team neglects Kenyans, and some CSs display serious ability to escape reality. Their collective actions contradict promises, treat the country as private shareholding ‘company’, and make careless statements in public.

With eroded credibility, Ruto’s incapacity to heal political and socio-economic wounds interferes with his ambition for recognition as Africa’s leader. Although the inability tarnishes his image, however, he cannot be ignored.