2027 General Election and the return of ethnic nationalism

Ethnic nationalism, as defined by Oxford University sources, is a political ideology that conceives of the nation in terms of shared ancestry, culture and descent, rather than the more capacious notion of citizenship. It rests on bonds of language, faith or lineage and is frequently exclusionary in practice, rendering the integration of outsiders difficult and, at times, unwelcome.

Kenya’s pronounced ethnic diversity, encompassing more than 44 recognised communities, has long demanded a careful legal balance between pluralism and unity. To that end, the State has enacted measures to restrain ethnic nationalism, discrimination and hate speech, with the aim of mitigating intercommunal tensions and fostering national cohesion. Central to this framework is the National Cohesion and Integration Act of 2008, which criminalises the incitement of ethnic hatred and seeks to curb discriminatory practices.

Yet, as so often in Kenya’s public life, the statute’s ambitions exceed its application. In practice, the country remains persistently fragmented along ethnic lines. The fragmentation is neither accidental nor organic. It is, rather, the handiwork of a political elite adept at mobilising atavistic loyalties to serve narrow electoral ends. Appeals to ethnic identity, however anachronistic in a modern, urbanising society, continues to yield political dividends.

That such appeals resonate even among one of Africa’s most educated populations is telling. Time and again, the primordial affiliation overrides the cooler judgment, stoking tensions that reliably intensify in the months preceding national elections.

With fewer than 16 months remaining until the 2027 national elections, the spectre of ethnic nationalism is once again asserting itself. As ever, its purpose is to marshal support by appealing to communal loyalties. Familiar refrains like invocations of “our people,” often delivered in vernacular, serve the dual purpose: They stir pride in perceived ethnic distinction while simultaneously fuelling resentment at an alleged exclusion from the levers of State power.

Public debt

Reality, however, appears more complex than these narratives suggest. Claims of “Mt Kenya exceptionalism” were tested during the previous administration. It inherited an economy that had been expanding rapidly in prior years yet left office amid elevated public debt and heightened concerns over risk of default.

Likewise, long-standing assertions that certain ethnic communities were inherently inept in business and governance are increasingly difficult to sustain in light of current political and administrative outcomes. President William Ruto’s administration has, thus far, maintained fiscal continuity and avoided the debt distress experienced by several other African states, partly through politically difficult fiscal and debt-management measures aimed at stabilising public finances. Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi has also pursued a refinancing strategy that lengthens maturities and seeks to reduce reliance on costly short-term borrowing.

At the same time, claims of political exclusion are harder to reconcile with the composition of senior government appointments, which include representation from communities whose leaders are often most vocal on issues of marginalisation. Taken together, these developments point to a political environment in which competing narratives of exclusion, entitlement and performance remain contested and far from conclusively settled.

Mr Khafafa is a public policy analyst