Uhuru can move fast and still swing the Mt Kenya vote

President Uhuru Kenyatta arrives in Sagana for a meeting with Mt Kenya leaders and representatives of special interest groups. [Standard]

Instead of being an explosive eruption, President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Sagana 3 meeting with Mt Kenya leaders and his supporters has been a slow-moving lava flow.

There were no high-profile defections from William Ruto’s ranks. Kenyatta did not disclose any new information on his relationship with his deputy. Claims about his legacy was an exercise in preaching to the converted.

Finally, his endorsement of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga was already common knowledge. That said, it would be unwise to conclude that Sagana 3 was a flop.

Kenyatta is an underrated politician. In 2013, he surprised many who had viewed him as a mere project since 2002 by putting together a winning presidential coalition. When he fell out with Ruto after 2017, he went about defenestrating key politicians allied to Ruto from parliament and other important institutions.

Yet the purge was not total, with many of Ruto’s allies left in government to signal that what he was against was active opposition to his agenda.

These and other examples suggest that Kenyatta can be a ruthless political animal.

But can he turn the tables on Ruto in this August’s election? Many pundits have tried to draw a parallel between this year and 2002.

Then, an unpopular president on his way out endorsed a greenhorn candidate that was met by a flood of defections from the ruling party and an unexpected Opposition unity. The president’s candidate lost, despite strong support from KANU’s core base.

 Will the same happen in 2022? The facts suggest that this year will be a different ball game.

Instead of a greenhorn candidate, Kenyatta has endorsed a veteran politician in Raila who is certainly able to carry his own weight.

The country also remains oddly divided on the president legacy. The intense feelings of disappointment in Mt Kenya are not matched outside the region.

Overall, Kenyatta may yet swing enough votes in Mt. Kenya and beyond to help Raila win in August.

However, time is not on his side.

The writer is an Assistant Professor at Georgetown University