Will Raila new tactic pay in Western?

By Peter Atsiaya and Renson Buluma

Prime Minister Raila Odinga is now using new political strategies to penetrate Western region and fight off growing onslaught by his ally turned foe Musalia Mudavadi.

Keen political observers say recent events clearly shows that Mr Odinga has changed the game plan and is now using Busia County as an entry point to salvage the Western block that he risked losing to Mr Mudavadi.

His decision to give an additional ministerial position to the region through the appointment of Budalangi MP Ababu Namwamba to the Cabinet and Attorney General Amos Wako joining his party, is proof of his firm grip on the county.

Mr Namwamba, the leader of the ODM reloaded team was appointed the Minister for Sports and Youth Affairs, replacing Funyula MP Paul Otuoma who was moved to the more powerful Ministry of Local Government docket initially held by Mr Mudavadi.

Stick with him

Political pundits argue that Busia County now has three flags from ODM with holders of two of them coming from the same constituency.

Mr Namwamba and Regional Development Minister Fred Gumo come from the same constituency though the later represents Westlands constituency in Nairobi. Both are long haul political fighters.

Mr Odinga has held two political rallies in Busia town, the heart of the County in a bid to woo people to stick with him.

Apart from Mr Namwamba, Mr Otuoma and Mr Gumo, Butula MP Alfred Odhiambo and assistant minister Sospeter Ojaamong have stood by Mr Odinga. This makes Busia the only county in Western where the PM has solid support from four MPs.

Mr Mudavadi will now rely on Nambale MP Chris Okemo to help stave off the ODM influence in the County.

But the decision by Mr Odinga to give the two flags to Busia County is expected to generate heat from regions that were eyeing the positions.

Blundered

Political analysts note that Mr Odinga blundered by giving all the seats to the County.

“It was not a good move. Although he had limited options, he should have distributed the seats to regions that stood by him in Western when he parted ways with Mr Mudavadi,” says lawyer and political analyst Martin Oloo.

He adds: “It is wrong for the PM to think that he can use Busia County to win Western support. Counties in the region are unique from each other and Busia should not be used to gauge the support he can get from the region”.

Mr Oloo says putting the flags in one region at the expense of the others would do more harm to ODM and the PM in Western than good”.

He adds: “Everyone knows that Mr Gumo comes from Busia and he is a minister. This means that they have more flags than other regions that supported Mr Odinga and this would hurt the PM”.

He points out that he should have given the position to Emuhaya MP Wilber Otichilo from Vihiga County.

Rewarded residents

“If I was the appointing authority I would have given the flag to Vihiga County and Dr Otichilo qualified to get it because he has made sure that his people remain steadfast in ODM despite Mr Mudavadi’s exit,” he adds.

He notes that the seat was held by a leader from Vihiga County and it should have been returned to them during the changes.

“Kakamega did not stand a chance of getting the seat because they have a flag already,” he says.

But Mr Ojaamong notes that the move would strengthen Mr Odinga’s support in the region.

“The PM has appreciated he support he got from the region and rewarded residents with the flag.Those who think otherwise are getting it wrong,” says the MP.

Mr Namwamba and Mr Otuoma are seen as Mr Odinga’s most loyal strategists in Western Kenya. They are not only energetic but also good orators and mobilisers.

Analysts say they played a crucial role in the party’s victory in the recent Bukura ward civic by-election in Mudavadi’s home turf.

Blessing in disguise

Other observers say Mr Odinga now has a balanced representation in the region.

In Kakamega County, his ally-Butere MP Wycliffe Oparanya is the Minister for Planning while in Bungoma Alfred Kangati now holds the more powerful post of assistant minister for Internal Security.

But Mr Mudavadi’s allies believe that the appointment was a blessing in disguise.

“We are aware that Emuhaya and Bungoma Counties residents are bitter because they were eyeing the seat,” says Vihiga MP Yussuf Chanzu.

He adds: “We are going to capitalise on the discontent to win the MPs from the region to UDF.”

 He notes that there was likely to be a falling out in ODM after leaders like Dr Otichilo and Webuye MP Alfred Sambu were denied flags.

“Our target is Dr Otichilo and we are going to bring him on board because he is not a happy man,” says Chanzu.

Observers also say that by failing to sack Mr Mudavadi’s ally-Information assistant Minister George Khaniri, Mr Odinga was also playing tactical games to keep the support he still had in Vihiga County.

Another political analyst, Lumala Masibo, notes that Mr Odinga  has a long way to go in trying to win back the Western region support.

Add some value

“Giving the flag to Namwamba  might not help him much because the new minister does not command a following in the region like Mudavadi,” says Dr Masibo.

He adds: “But the move would add some value to ODM in Busia County because some people would feel appreciated for supporting him”.

But grassroots leaders from the region hold different views following the changes.

Political pundits

Mr David Majanja, a former chairman of Port Victoria?Town says Dr Otuoma and Mr Namwamba need to tread carefully because of the appointments.

He says the appointments ? could put the duo at the edge of rejection or acceptance depending on the? way they use the new portfolio to help their people.

 “It is normal for people to expect too much from those? who have been given such posts. Unfortunately they may not be? able to meet these expectations due to the limited time they have before we go ?to elections,” says Mr Majanja.

Counter

Busia County Council Chairman Michael Congo says Mr Namwamba’s appointment will? deny him an opportunity to strengthen his grip on Budalangi because?of ministerial engagements.?

Other local political observers feel Mr Odinga’s move will pay dividends.

“This is a strategy by Mr Odinga to counter? Musalia’s influence and maintain ODM dominance in the region to boost his presidential? ambitions ahead of the March 4 elections,” says Michael Otieno a voter in Busia?County.