Why return to Ufungamano is symbolic for Raila and Karua

Azimio la Umoja One Kenya leaders Raila Odinga and Martha Karua went back to Ufungamano House this week, a place they used to frequent from the late 1990s as they joined civil society and religious groups in the fight for constitutional reforms.

Those in the group that pushed for reforms in the 1990s and 2000 were the late President Mwai Kibaki, the Vice President Kijana Wamalwa, current Siaya Governor James Orengo and former Kitui Governor Charity Ngilu.

Others were then Kabete MP Paul Muite and his Runyenjes counterpart Njeru Kathangu, the lawyer Dr Oki Ooko Ombaka and National Council of Churches of Kenya Secretary General Mutava Musyimi.

The Coalition for National Convention that later became 4Cs, student leaders and trade unions were also active.

They had all ganged up to caucus on the removal of PresidentMoi and his Kanu government from power through a democratic process.

Former Chief Justice Dr Willy Mutunga, one of the biggest activists at the time wrote that the objective was to create a democratic, neutral ground for electioneering and elections.

President Moi and his government fought the Ufungamano team, claiming that some politicians had been bribed by foreigners to cause chaos are a ploy to divert Kenyans from the problems facing the country.

In April 2000, Ufungamano established a broad-based People's Commission of Kenya (PCK) that was chaired by Dr Ombaka, which later merged with the Prof Yash Pal Ghai-led Constitutional of Kenya Review Commission.

So why a sudden interest in Ufungamano from opposition politicians especially now that they are again agitating for reforms and other governance issues?

Political analyst Martin Andati thinks it is because they have realised President William Ruto might not be very sincere in his approach to bipartisan talks.

He adds that they may have looked at the team the Kenya Kwanza coalition picked to represent them in the yet to begin bipartisan talks and realized the government side was not serious.

"After the parliamentary group meeting, National Assembly Leader of Majority Kimani Ichung'wa said they will only talk about the reconstitution of the IEBC selection panel to recruit commissioners yet Raila is talking about them agreeing on nominating commissioners through the 1997 IPPG route," said Andati.

There is therefore a big gap that the opposition thinks cannot be breached because even the IEBC issue that they seemed to close ranks on cannot be dealt with yet there are many other things they want discussed.

And so by engaging civil society, unions and student leaders as they did against Moi in the early 90s, their aim is to broaden the protest base and in so doing also widen the reforms agenda that they plan to table.

Among the most notable faces at the Ufungamano meeting was Suba Churchill, the Executive Director Civil Society Centre and University Academic Staff Union Secretary General Constantine Wasonga who were both involved in reform protests for a long time. The former and other student leaders from the nearby University of Nairobi used to frequent Ufungamano Initiative meetings to give politicians a difficult time during deliberations.

"They will make serious traction because they see a lot of disillusionment in the government. Ruto made too many promises both to individuals and the country whose fulfilment has become a big challenge," says Andati.

Analysts also point at the ongoing debate especially in social media over the appointments the President is making, arguing that they lack inclusivity because majority of the men and women being appointed come from two communities.

They argue that unlike the Moi days, where he appointed persons from different communities to head institutions and from his own as deputy and other positions below, the current administration is shamelessly putting their own all at the top.

It has emerged that despite not openly showing their discontent, coalition partners have remained silent because they would expose themselves to attacks from opponents in Azimio and other critics if they did so.

"People like Musalia and Wetang'ula cannot come out and say they are not happy but if you look at Luhya social media forums, the volume of negative comments tells it all and the same applies to Alfred Mutua, Amason Kingi and Jusin Muturi who got nothing," says Andati.

Then the unions are also not happy especially after the State House economic advisor David Ndii talked about retrenchment demands being made by some Bretton Woods institutions.

Professor of History and International Relations Macharia Munene also thinks Raila's strategy of working with the civil society and religious leaders is good in the push for reforms.

"It is a good strategy because people are seen to be thinking together but its effectiveness will depend on how Ruto reacts because all they are doing is trying to make life difficult for him," says Munene.

He says the civil society is another pressure point that adds up on the demonstrations and protests, making it a contest of wills that will test the ability of government and its reaction.

From his analysis, Raila had already set the agenda and bringing all civil society groups on board will only reinforce it.

"It is a contest and it now depends on how well Ruto can handle the challenge. So far, he has not shown that he has very good ability," says Munene, who thinks the president is clever but he is making blunders that is making Raila look better every other day.

Prof Munene argues that Raila has reached out to former allies in civil society but it may also just be for optical purposes, yet his strategy has been greatly assisted by Ruto and his government.

He says Raila is very lucky because the government itself which for the first time has reportedly has not paid staff in its foreign missions among other challenges is pushing his agenda.

One glaring problem he has learned is that diplomats have not been paid and rent for embassies is also pending which is not good for the country.

"The image is terrible because when other African countries used to have problems paying staff and rent in Europe and could not meet their small obligations, Kenya used to look good but now it us who are not paying bills and salaries," says Prof Munene.

Public universities are also having problems because almost all of them are now complaining about salaries apart from Egerton which raised the red flag two years ago.

Debate is also raging over comments made by Ndii that the government had prioritised paying public debt instead of paying salaries for civil servants and other local debts.

Prof Munene thinks it was not very helpful to the government's image for Ndii to say that they paying foreign debts first.

"He was making a point as an economist and advisor but then he raised questions because people are now asking which one do you pay first? Do you pay foreigners first and then worry about your people later?"

Prof Munene says the unfortunate image that comes out of it is that; "they told us that they first make the foreigners happy when the people are dying".

The narrative about the government not having money could be true but it is not helped by endless hiring of cronies left right and centre.

"Ruto is hiring cronies and filling bureaucracies as he fires others and then saying there is no money. Where is getting money to hire these cronies?" asks Munene.

Matters are not any better at county level where governors from both the Ruto and Raila camps are crying to the President that they want money, yet Treasury says it can't pay.

Taxes especially in the energy sector are shooting through the roof but the most terrible one from Prof Munene's analysis is the increase on the price of salt.

"Those who have read about the French revolution know what it means increasing the price of salt," says Munene.

Prof Gitile Naituli of Multi-Media University thinks Raila's going back to Ufungamano is because the opposition leader knows Kenya Kwanza is not interested in talks.

"The trust is not there especially after Ruto picked Jubilee MPs join the talks when one of Azimio's demands is that a law be enacted to make defecting MPs seeks a fresh mandate," said Naituli.