Raila will be a key voice in keeping President on toes

ODM leader Raila Odinga. [Jonah Onyango, Standard]

ODM leader Raila Odinga will still be one of the most visible and sought after politicians by the media and Kenyans in 2023 and beyond. The trajectory of his political influence towers above his peers as continues to rise more than three decades when he announced his entry into local politics.

As Kenyans usher in the new year, many will be banking on the opposition figure to champion for justice, human and consumer rights and against bad governance in 2023.

"He will check excesses in government because he has been there and knows the road ahead," says political analyst Prof Gitile Naituli of Multi-Media University.

He cites the economic hardships Kenyans are going through as an area that Raila will use as he engages the Kenya Kwanza government in the political space.

The rising energy cost and soaring cost of living are big issues, which Naituli argues need urgent attention by the government to address the cost of doing business in the country.

"As long as key investors look at Ethiopia, Tanzania and Rwanda as alternatives to Kenya for doing business because of cheaper power, poverty will increase and Kenyans will continue listening to Raila more," says Prof Naituli.

Business as usual

It has also been business as usual as Kenyans continue facing a ubiquitous tax regime where police and local government officers shamelessly continue collecting money from Matatu and bar operators.

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And so analysts again argue that Raila's voice will be heard across the country as he fights to make the business environment more friendly and free from harassment and extortion.

Apart from the many licenses business owners require to operate, Naituli regrets that those operating small bars and wine shops in Nairobi and other towns dish out "tips" to officers every Wednesdays and Fridays as protection fees.

"Raila calls that bandit economy because those are illegal extra taxes and yet nobody is addressing those serious societal challenges that transitioned seamlessly from the Uhuru government to Ruto's," says Naituli.

Political pundits further argue that Raila will continue being the alternative to those in power and become a major factor in the 2027 presidential elections.

It was too close, yet too far for Raila in the 2022 presidential elections when he lost by just over 200,0000 votes to President William Ruto.

Despite insisting that he won that election, Raila has over the past three months turned his guns on the Kenya Kwanza government, playing his oversight role by accusing it of failing to protect the populace from the harsh economic challenges.

Apart from the 2007 elections which the ODM leader lost in very controversial circumstances, many pundits had placed their dime on him edging out Ruto in the August 2022 polls.

He has given the current government little breathing space since October and will most likely try to suffocate it further in the coming months over what he calls broken campaign promises.

Last month, Raila organised a major opposition rally at Kamukunji grounds and threatened to hold a parallel Jamhuri Day rally at Jacaranda grounds in Eastlands before calling it off.

Sources indicated that he was prevailed upon to call off the meeting by religious leaders to stop what could have been an embarrassment to the country on a national day.

Political scientist and analyst Amukoa Anangwe describes Raila as a man who plays in his own league and therefore a politician those in power will contend with now and in the future.

"Politics is not anyone's game and to endure this far, there must be something propelling him, which is mostly his persona and gravitas," says Anangwe.

Having worked with Raila since 1979 before they parted ways, Prof Anangwe points at the ODM leader's dynamism as another driving force.

He is also described him as a master of taking advantage of circumstances and using any windows to deal heavy blows against his adversaries.

From Anangwe's viewpoint, Raila is pushing hard because he realises that Kenya Kwanza promised too much and they may not meet all the high expectations from the people.

Vox Populi Vox Dei (the voice of the people is the voice of God) has been Raila's rallying call over the years in his confrontations with president's Daniel Moi, Mwai Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta which may continue during William Ruto's presidency.

Under the current economic circumstances and political situation, he has again seized the opportunity to rally millions of his support base to fight for his political course.

Given the circumstances there is a chance of disgruntlement also emerging among the Kenya Kwanza supporters and he therefore will harp on that too.

"He is very good at hammering governments in power and bringing them down politically by saying credibly what the people would like to hear, that is his forte," adds Anangwe.

From the foregoing, he argues that Raila should not be ruled out in the 2027 presidential election where he could make a sixth attempt to become president.

From the current group of opposition leaders, he stands the biggest chance especially because the last elections showed that his support base is half of the voting block.

Another pundit and lawyer Stanislus Murunga concurs that if the Kenya Kwanza government does not perform incredibly well, they risk losing to him should he run.

"They have to wake up to that fact, that Raila is still a formidable opponent and the wakeup call is for them to meet the expectations," says Murunga.

Critics argue that Kenya Kwanza failed to deliver what it promised to do in 100 days but Anangwe thinks that could be because it took them longer to constitute a government.

He urges Kenyans to give Ruto another 100 days to reduce food prices and the cost of living that has made life unbearable for the common man, especially in urban centres.

Some critics have dismissed Raila as a spent force because of his advancing age, he turns 78 in under seven days from today (on January 7) but political pundits say it is foolhardy to write off the doyen of Kenyan politics.

They say there is no retirement age in politics, as the saying goes, age is just but a number, and in Raila's case it has not diminished his gusto, vitality and tact.

Former American President Henry Ford said: "Whether you think you can or you think you can't - you are right" those who are fearless never grow old. Age is no limitation, the only limitations are those you set for yourself.

Anangwe refers to US President Joe Biden who took over the presidency at 79 as an example and further argues that there is a precedent set by Raila's father who died in his late 80's while still politically active.

Other examples include Kenya's first president who died at 85 while in office, a politician in Kisii who served in the last parliament while aged 81 and Raila's elder brother Oburu who is the Siaya senator.