Power-sharing for export, any takers?

By Dan Okoth

When Zimbabwe's opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai took office on Wednesday under a power-sharing deal with President Robert Mugabe, Kenya’s formula for political expedience was repeated almost to a tee.

Tsvangirai’s acceptance to be his country’s second black Prime Minister was greeted with the same kind of celebrations in Kenya in February 2008. Then, Orange Democratic Movement leader Raila Odinga accepted to share power with President Mwai Kibaki, as Kenya’s second premier since independence from Britain, the country that also colonised Zimbabwe.

The Zimbabwean deal was the result of months of negotiation mostly spearheaded by former South African president Thabo Mbeki under the auspices of the Southern Africa Development Cooperation and, by extension, the African Union.

Like in Kenya in early 2008, disputed presidential elections in Zimbabwe resulted from the fact that Tsvangirai won the election by a slim majority. According to media reports, Mugabe thereafter employed state-sponsored violence to secure victory in the runoff that followed.

If certain election observers and exit polls are to be believed, Raila won the presidential election by between 6 and 8 percentage points against Kibaki.

Police shooting of unarmed protesters in the violence that followed is one of the subjects that the International Criminal Court or a Special Tribunal on pot-election violence could soon be looking at.

A commission headed by a former South African judge Johann Kriegler found the ECK decision to declare Kibaki the winner ridiculous. The Special Tribunal debate – now before parliament – stems from recommendations of the Justice Waki report (see elsewhere on The Standard homepage). In Zimbabwe, abuses in Matabeleland is an issue Mugabe and Tsvangirai (and The Hague maybe?) could be handling in good time.

How Tsvangirai and Mugabe carry themselves will be watched keenly by Kenya, where the grand coalition government faces an acid test – corruption claims, power struggles, widespread hunger and mutual suspicion. Kenyans are increasingly calling for another election. (See www.eastandard.net/politics on the left)

With elections coming up on April 22, South Africa will not be any less keen. The interest of Zimbabwe’s southern neighbour will be even keener given the links between its main election players with the Zimbabwe rivals-turned-partners.

An interesting scenario comes up when one considers the friendship between MDC and South Africa’s African National Congress, its southern neighbour, and Kenya’s ODM.

As the world contemplated what to do with Mugabe after the March 2008 election, Tsvangirai travelled to a few countries. Among them was Kenya, where he and Tendai Biti (Zimbabwe’s new Finance minister) met Raila.

Tsvangirai also met ANC’s Jacob Zuma, who was vocal about his opposition to Mbeki’s pussyfooting with Mugabe. In a clear reference to Mugabe, Zuma said during one meeting with Tsvangirai that political leaders "should not be in power for longer than a decade".

Later, Raila made a statement other world leaders soon picked up: that Mugabe, the man he called "an eyesore on the African continent" should be removed from power, by force, if necessary.

By accepting to share power, Mugabe has reinvented himself. For the sake of Zimbabweans ravaged by cholera and the world’s highest inflation, international criticism has died down.

The international Anglican church was a lonely voice in January when it insisted Mugabe should step down.

World leaders have gone quiet. But should they showcase Mugabe’s as a worthy formula for power-sharing, they would be precipitating a storm in many countries with shaky political climates.

One such example is South Africa. Its example will be tested in the April 22 election. Hopefully, Kenya’s unique export will not be the commodity in demand.