Why gender balance must be a concern to intelligence agencies

Njoki Ndung’u

In 2004, two university professors, Valerie M Hudson and Andrea M den Boer, published study findings entitled, ‘Bare Branches: The Security Implications of Asia’s Surplus Male Population’.

Intrigued by the proposition that there can be a dimension to security relating to population statistics based on gender, I ordered a copy, which since has become my reference point on the need to include gender as a factor in identifying early warning signs, triggers, or catalysts of conflict.

The term ‘bare branches’ is an old Chinese term that has its roots in the 19th Century, in the time of the renowned merchant, Hao Gua, when the infanticide of female babies was common in the north of China, as a response to famine and scarcity of essentials, such that by the turn of the century one out of four young men could not find a bride.

In patriarchal society, this annulled many family trees when such males were unable to carry on their family lines because they could not find wives. These ‘bare branches’ eventually turned to organised crime and violence, killing hundreds of thousands of people and creating instability in the country before they were eventually contained.

The 20th century ushered in accelerated industrialisation and expansion of economic growth in China, but the introduction of one couple-one child rule resulted in more infanticide of girls and select sex abortions. As a result, there are millions of missing girls and when the boys grow up they find there are no girls to marry.

One top researcher observes: "The working age population of China is collapsing. There were seven workers to every old person in 1990. Now, there are barely four. By 2035 there will be only two. What happened to the workers? They are the missing children of the missing girls who then became missing mothers. Where this leads, we don’t pretend to know. But bare branches bend, and then they break."

The recent census data in India reflects the same problem. The ratio of female to male children is at 914 for every 1,000 boys; the global average is 1,050 girls for every 1,000 boys. The pressure to produce male heirs provides the environment for illegal sex-selection abortions and female infanticides to continue. The gap between the numbers is expected to widen and increase the deficit of females. According to some estimates, there will be 28 million more Indian men than women by 2020. There are already more than 38 million single males in China. Authors Hudson and Den Boer, also conclude that China and India together account for 62-68 million missing females in Asia.

The artificial scarcity of females represents not only an inestimable loss of human capital but it creates a myriad of security concerns. Growing populations of young adult men unable to find marriage partners and with no stake in the social order that comes from starting families endangers domestic stability. The chilling conclusion of the Hudson-den Boer study is that increased competition for brides caused by skewed male-to-female ratios is inevitably won by young men with better prospects, leaving bare branches from poorer classes to degenerate into socially disruptive behaviour including membership to criminal gangs and extremist groups.

In Kenya little thought has been given to the implications of a skewed gendered population because the ratio of men to women, thus far, is within the global average. It should, however, be food for thought, as we address our own youth bulge, lest we too inevitably create our own home grown bare branches.

The writer is an Advocate of the High Court.

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