IEBC woes point to a proxy war in Jubilee, NASA is not too far

Since coming to office in January 2017, members of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) have frequently fought among themselves, and often in public.

The latest fight led to the dramatic resignation of three commissioners, Vice Chair Consolata Nkatha Maina, Margaret Mwachanya and Paul Kurgat. The move has left the IEBC paralysed.

After the annulment of the first presidential election in September last year, IEBC chair, Wafula Chebukati, wrote a long accusatory letter to the CEO, Ezra Chiloba, effectively blaming him for the mess.

In what has become standard practice within the commission, not only was the memorandum leaked to the media, but also four commissioners issued a public statement, disavowing the memorandum and, in effect, exonerating Chiloba from blame.

Thereafter, Chebukati’s intention to have Chiloba and members of the ICT department proceed on leave to, allow investigations, and was thwarted by a negative vote in the plenary.

Because of their history of in-fighting, the latest public disagreement over the disciplinary action taken against the CEO is nothing new.

What is new though is that by choosing to resign, rather than find a way, once again, to defeat what the IBEC chair intended, the resigning commissioners have done their worst and in the process removed themselves from the querulous game they had perfected since taking office.

If it was about protecting Chiloba, requiring him to go on leave need not be the end of his term in office. One possibility is that an investigation can absolve him from blame and Chiloba can then resume his duties. As Chebukati pointed out, it was also open to the three offended commissioners to secure a reversal of the suspension by seeking a different decision at the plenary.

Also, Chiloba has since taken out judicial proceedings against his employers and, in theory, these could also result in him returning to office. By choosing to resign, when less extreme options were possible, the commissioners have not only acted out of character but have also reacted way over the top in relation to the situation facing them. The question though is whether there is a rational explanation for the actions of these commissioners, and whether they should have dealt with the situation differently.

Reactions to news of the resignation of the three commissioners have provided clues as to the reasons that underlie the resignation.

Ordinarily, there are clear party positions when it comes to issues of the IEBC, with the Jubilee Party likely to take one view and the opposition NASA like to take an opposing opinion.

Unusually, however, there are no discernible party positions from the political actors who have reacted to the IEBC saga, with individuals from both in the governing Jubilee and the opposition NASA calling on the remaining commissioners to also quit.

DISCIPLINARY ACTION

The temporary withdrawal of security personnel attached to Chebukati and the remaining two commissioners has also been telling, and indicates that events at the IEBC are not simply an internal matter for the commission, but one in which external actors have also taken an interest.

A decision to withdraw the security of commissioners could only have been taken at high levels of government.

The move suggests that there is an internal war within Jubilee regarding the fate of the IEBC and it now seems that, not content with leaving the IEBC to deal with the mass resignations, there remains an ambition to pulverise the commission altogether.

While it is difficult to tell whether the suspension of Chiloba was a bona fide disciplinary action or part of the political wars that his suspension has elicited, the decision by the three commissioners to resign was unmatched by the claimed offence seems to have been calculated to inflict harm to the IEBC, beyond the simple quarrel over Chiloba’s fate.

There is speculation that, unhappy that Chiloba’s suspension could lead to the loss of his job and the control he has at the IEBC, a faction within Jubilee then decided to induce the resignation of commissioners friendly to it, to bring the house down.

There is further speculation that wrecking the IEBC is aimed at complicating the possibility of a referendum to change the Constitution, one of the possible offshoots from the handshake between Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga. There can be no referendum without a functioning IEBC.

Whatever the correct interpretation of these confounding political events, it is clear that they represent an emerging reshaping of the country’s politics in the wake of the handshake. As part of that, a level of falling out, both in Jubilee and NASA, seems inevitable.

While the country is used to open infighting within the opposition ranks, open conflict inside Jubilee has been rare, but now increasingly looks likely. The infighting at the IEBC appears like a proxy war within Jubilee.

In the process, it has become clear that the IEBC establishment is not made of angels, with rivals spilling dirt on adversaries, through leaked internal information, only demonstrating how fallen the IEBC always was.