Oburu Oginga's big task amid rising internal ODM rivalries

ODM acting party leader Oburu Odinga at former Prime Minsiter Raila Odinga's memorial service. (Anne Atieno, Standard) When he took over power at Chungwa House and promised to steady ODM after the death of Party Leader Raila Odinga, many were waiting to see how the Siaya Senator would fit into the big shoes of his brother. Raila had managed to keep the dissenting voices in check, especially after the party joined the so-called broad-based government with President William Ruto's Kenya Kwanza coalition. Dr Oburu Oginga's short reign, however, has been tumultuous despite the flickers of success the party has registered after retaining three parliamentary seats in Ugunja, Kasipul, and Magarini in the recent by-elections. The party leader is walking a tight rope as he juggles between strengthening a party fraught with sibling rivalries, external pressure to seal a deal with UDA beyond 2027, and a power struggle threatening his stay at the helm. The supremacy contest has pushed some top officials to intensify their bid to consolidate their own influence on ODM's traditional support base of Nyanza. Within the family, Raila's daughter Winnie Odinga is also harboring dreams of inheriting her father's turf. And some leaders in Kenya Kwanza want to have a say, pushing the party leadership to strengthen its bond with President Ruto's side. Analysts believe Oburu is paving the way for a younger generation to take over the party in the future. Strategic communications consultant Barrack Muluka argues that the Senator is a stopgap measure, and that he does not have the power to strengthen ODM into a formidable, united force. He sees the success in the by-elections as a roll-over from the energies that Raila left behind. On Tuesday, Oburu hosted leaders who had participated in the mini polls at Chungwa House, where he urged members to unite and strengthen the party. "This is not a time for us to sleep; this is a time for us to work, deliver, and strengthen our party. ODM must remain strong. It is a national party, not a party for any particular area, but a party for the unity of Kenya and for the future of the country," he said. Yesterday, a senior ODM official told The Standard that many do not believe Oburu has the mettle to transform the party. "Oburu is only playing the script developed by UDA operatives under the broad-based arrangement, and that is why they were quick to parade our winners at State House. Our party will be weaker if we are not firm enough," he said. At the weekend, Rarieda MP Otiende Amollo also challenged the party to play hard to get into their relationship with the government to increase their value. He claimed that the party risked losing its worth if it morphed into a praise and worship entity for the government. It remains to be seen how Oburu will address the differing voices. But this is not the only problem Oburu is facing. In Nyanza, bridges that Raila built between the critics and backers of the Raila-Ruto unity have developed cracks. A full-blown war of words pitting some ODM leaders against their UDA counterparts has reemerged as the battle for supremacy continues. Probably eager to exploit the absence of a strong figure that Raila was, they are warning the party to be ready for a tough duel in 2027. In the last two days, for instance, groups of people claiming to be supporters of Interior PS Raymond Omollo have staged protests in Kisumu, Homa Bay and Migori against Governor Gladys Wanga, the party chairperson. They claim Wanga was belittling Dr Omollo's contribution to the government. However, Wanga allies believe the protests are sponsored and misplaced. Similarly, Migori former governor Okoth Obado has dismissed ODM's influence, arguing that it is only a matter of time before the party fragments into factions. Last week, Obado urged party members to quit back President Ruto's UDA. In Kisumu, among the anti-ODM politicians leading early campaigns are former Kisumu Central MP Ken Obura, who is bidding to succeed Governor Anyang' Nyong'o. The recent fall between Governor Wanga and her deputy, Oyugi Magwanga, only adds to the many political fires Oburu must fight. Prior to his death, Raila had struggled to contain most of the sibling rivalries that were bordering on politicians competing for similar seats or influence. In the case of Magwanga and Wanga, Raila had broken a truce that saw the two leader team up in the 2022 General Election. Some analysts, however, believe Oburu is on the right track and could transform the party. Communication consultant Charles Nyambuga says ODM's success in securing the three parliamentary seats is a good start. However, he thinks that the Raila shadow is still looming large, complete with sympathy votes. "All these could have played a role in the success of the ODM party," he says. Rangwe MP Lillian Gogo says the party must be strengthened as a vehicle to State House or entering a coalition to get power. She says the by-elections win indicates that they need to work together to form a formidable force for 2027. "Dr Oburu is a humble and down-to-earth, forthright party leader," she says. Constitutional lawyer Joshua Nyamori also thinks Oburu is keeping ODM intact. However, he says the party did not face its real competition in last week's mini polls. "Under normal circumstances, ODM's opponent would have been UDA. However, President William Ruto deliberately stood down UDA candidates as a gesture of goodwill toward the broad-based political arrangement. That courtesy matters," he says. Nyamori thinks that if ODM is sincere about 2027, then this is the moment for them to make a clear, conclusive statement of supporting the President's re-election. "Because the truth is simple; ODM stands to lose the most in the event of a fallout. The President will continue governing and winning nationally - but ODM risks being isolated if they mistake goodwill for weakness."

Oburu Oginga's big task amid rising internal ODM rivalries

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