Raila-Ruto talks: Fate of dialogue shaky as differences persist

 National Dialogue Committee co-chairs Kalonzo Musyoka (left) and Kimani Ichung'wah at the Bomas of Kenya, September 2023. [Dennis Kavisu, Standard]

The fate of the ongoing bipartisan talks appears shaky following differences that have persisted since the dialogue began in August.

At a press briefing yesterday, the National Dialogue Committee said they were yet to agree on contentious issues, some of which have previously threatened to derail the talks.

National Assembly Minority Leader Opiyo Wandayi and Embu Governor Cecily Mbarire said they had reached "consensus" on a number of issues, announcing a meeting planned for Wednesday, aimed at ironing the differences as the talks enter their second phase.

By then, the eight-member technical committee is expected to meet and harmonise the contentious issues, a task that has been unsuccessful over the weeks, with differences between the government and opposition's representatives playing out during the committee's two-week public hearings that ended Tuesday.

The Saturday Standard has reliably learnt that the audit of last year's presidential election is the main sticking point in the talks. Raila Odinga's Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya is adamant that the audit, which involves having servers opened, must precede the recruitment of new electoral commissioners. 

On the other hand, President William Ruto's Kenya Kwanza Alliance still rejects the idea, insisting that the Supreme Court already conducted an audit of sorts. Earlier this week, the president's United Democratic Alliance said they would be open to an audit on the electoral process and not its result.

Other issues, such as the respect for political parties, are causing friction within the 10-member committee, with both parties seeming to agree on the entrenchment of the Constituency Development Fund (CDF) in the Constitution.

But there are concerns within Azimio that the CDF would only be possible in a parliamentary system, where the legislature is also in charge of Executive functions, a move that will require a referendum.

Such concerns stem from the Supreme Court's decision that the CDF Act of 2013 was unconstitutional as it infringed on the principle of separation of powers. A later version, the National Government Constituency Development Fund Act of 2015, also faces legal challenges.

The committee prioritised the reconstitution of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission, auditing the presidential election and boundaries delimitation, outstanding constitutional matters, fidelity to political parties, entrenchment of affirmative action and oversight funds in the Constitution and the establishment of the office of the leader of official opposition and legitimising the office of the prime cabinet secretary.

When they jointly issued the talks' five agenda items last month, inviting public views on the same, Azimio and Kenya Kwanza gave the impression that they had finally let go of their hardline stances before the differences emerged again as the discussions progressed.

"This has been one of the most consultative processes. We seem to have had convergence on a number of issues and we will focus on building consensus on the outstanding issues," Wandayi said yesterday.

"We will be working long hours and we are determined to build consensus within the set timelines but we will cross the bridge when we get there... we will also give time and consideration to issues brought before us that were not part of the five items we agreed on," said Mbarire, who added  the contentious issues would be divulged ahead of Wednesday's meeting.

Both Wandayi and Mbarire sounded optimistic about the dialogue's outcome whose 60-day timeline that expires at the end of this month. Some sources within the committee were not as optimistic.

"How can we say there is consensus when we are discussing the cost of living with the fuel prices still rising? How do we talk about respect in political parties when Kenya Kwanza is enjoying a false majority in Parliament? How do we discuss unity when people are dying in Sondu?" posed a source who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Jubilee Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni, who heads Azimio's technical committee, was also pessimistic about the talks.

"The honeymoon is over," he said about the talks and of the task of finding harmony. Kioni has been critical about the dialogue, which has also faced opposition from Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and his allies from Mt Kenya region.

In the face of opposition within their ranks,  Raila and Ruto have avoided wading into the dialogue committee's affairs. During an exclusive interview with KTN News on Wednesday, Raila said he was awaiting the outcome of the talks to decide the opposition's next course of action.

"These talks have the potential of coming up with fundamental solutions to our problems. But it depends on the environment and attitude taken by both sides. From our side, we said we would give it the benefit of doubt and the support it needs to succeed," the former prime minister said.

He would endorse the presentation by his Azimio coalition, which was among the entities that made presentations before the committee. Most of the proposals by the various stakeholders pointed at an inevitable referendum, given they touched on fundamental constitutional provisions.

Such include boundary delimitation and increasing nominative positions to meet the two-thirds gender threshold and a possible alteration of the governance structure.