Ipsos study shows Kenyans pessimistic about 2014

By  ROSELYNE OBALA

KENYA: As Kenyans usher in the New Year, they remain pessimistic about what lies ahead with regard to the general economic conditions and cost of living.

A survey conducted by Ipsos Kenya reveals that two thirds of Kenyans fear that the cost of living will shoot up in 2014.

The report indicates that seven out of every ten Kenyans expect the cost of living and economic conditions to worsen next year as the inflation rate in November 2013 stood at 7.36 per cent.

“It is therefore not surprising that the more than two thirds (70 per cent) of Kenyans expect the cost of living to worsen in 2014. Notably, in at least six national household surveys Ipsos has conducted over the last one year, the high cost of living has repeatedly been mentioned as the most pressing problem facing Kenyans,” stated Ipsos Kenya Managing Director Margaret Ireri.

 However, this is contrary to a similar study Ipsos Kenya undertook in December 2012, where Kenyans were more optimistic about the coming year (2013), as 67 per cent expected the cost of living to drop and another 62 per cent anticipated the economic conditions to improve.

Ms Ireri explained that the main issues many Kenyans plan to focus on in 2014 are those that relate to financial stability, which include savings (24 per cent),  getting a job/new job 917 per cent)  and furthering their education (14 per cent).

 She disclosed that the number of Kenyans who feel there will be better employment prospects in 2014 have declined from 61 per cent to a new low of 37 per cent.

 The findings come as the Government grapples with the high rate of unemployment in the country, where youth and women, who account for 78 per cent of the population, are jobless.

 However, according to World Bank, meaningful GDP growth and targeted employment creation can only be achieved if an economy registers at least a 7 per cent growth rate and sustains it.

 “Employment creation in Kenya continues to be an insurmountable task in both the formal and informal sectors. The formal sector has a low absorption capacity relative to the high growth rates of the labour force,” she said.

She added: “In as much as the informal sector has the potential to employ relatively larger number of Kenyans, its absorption capacity is dependent on a consistently strong and long term economic performance, which has not been the case in Kenya.”

She, however, regretted that 41 per cent of Kenyans have not yet fully laid out their plans for the coming year.

The survey also revealed that Kenyans are more occupied with issues such as getting married, doing more physical exercises, improved spiritual life and socialising with friends.

“In the previous survey, we had Kenyans indicating that they intended to either start or expand their investments in 2013, but  no respondent mentioned this in their 2014 wish list,” noted Ireri.

 She said this is an indication that either investment is no longer a priority for most Kenyans or the cost of living is biting too hard.

 “The 2014 wish list has been influenced by the high cost of living as the number of those intending to invest has dropped to zero. The prices of goods have risen and Kenyans are spending more and they are left with nothing to invest,” said Ireri.

 She continued: “Inflation and the high cost of living are making Kenyans downbeat. Although the economy has grown at a macro level, the benefits of this growth have not trickled down to the ordinary mwananchi.”

She also said  the enactment of the VAT Act 2013 has lead to an increase in the cost of many household good, with many Kenyans still struggling to make ends meet.

 Although a similar survey in 2012 was carried at a time when the country was preparing for a general election, more than half expected the political climate in 2013 to be better.

 The report noted that Kenyans were optimistic that the country would focus on development agenda instead of politicking once the elections were over.

This has, however, not been the case as there has been a protracted row over devolution pitting the national government against the devolved units.

Shortchanged

Jubilee has recently been rocked with wrangles, with a section of politicians allied to the United Republican Party (URP) wing claiming that the party has been shortchanged in  Government appointments.

The current situation compares to what transpired in the aftermath of the 2002 General Election. Four months after the National Rainbow Coalition Government rode to power on a euphoric wave that ended Kanu’s reign, Kenyans were rated the most optimistic people in the world, yearning for better governance and service delivery.

 However, the hope dissipated as the new regime that had campaigned on a reform platform got mired in grand corruption and power feuds.

 Currently, President Uhuru Kenyatta and his Deputy William Ruto have been criticised for the repressive media Act, unilateral appointments of loyalist to State jobs and  a plot to determine who sits in the crucial Judicial Service Commission.