An ill-prepared Jubilee could be in for a rude surprise on August 8

 

There is a third unseen ‘principal’ in the Jubilee Party. His name is ‘Complacency’. He stands in between the President and his deputy, holding their hands. He takes them on long meandering walks through streets of smugness, down roads of self-satisfaction, and through paths of premature gloating.

Complacency’s main role is to distract the ‘digital duo’ from noticing another invisible political player - ‘The Mighty Constitutional Threshold’, commonly referred to as 50 per cent + 1.

If the Jubilee top two let go of the deceptive clasp of Complacency, they will wake up and smell the strong whiff of electoral reality. That actuality is this; not only is a run-off possible, it is also probable. And I will explain why.

A run-off in August is likely to happen for the simple reason that both sides of the political divide have done their coalition voting block arithmetic. This will definitely raise the mid-point mark of the votes that will be cast.

But this guy, Complacency, is misguiding the duo. For starters, he has deluded them into fixing their eyes on a perceived enemy; Raila Odinga. If some lessons could be drawn from the nomination process, two things would stand out. The first is that Raila did not send any of the Jubilee candidates who lost home, the electorate did. And the second lesson is derived from the first- it is the electorate and not Raila that should shape Jubilee’s actions and reactions this electoral cycle.

As it stands, Raila has somehow become the go-between. It is as if the job of collecting public sentiment has suddenly fallen on him. He mops up these ‘messages’, then adds a bit of seasoning, some convolution and a lot of sensationalism. He then packages it in accusation and then places the mess at Jubilees doorstep to deal with.

Taking the bait, Jubilee responds like clockwork. They spend their time negating him, confronting him, challenging him and discrediting him. In so doing, they are constantly on the defensive, one step behind, playing catch up. Jubilee should instead take the initiative, they should pay less attention to Raila and focus more on the invisible political player. And they should know that this is where Raila himself has focused all his energies- making sure that Uhuru does not win in the first round in order to precipitate a run-off.

Two scenarios will play out should Jubilee continue its leisurely walk with Complacency. The first, is an outright loss, the second is a run-off. The GEMA and Kalenjin vote is currently 7.8 million strong, while the NASA vote, combining the Luo, Luhya and Kamba blocks is 6.8 million strong. Those are their respective points of departure. And although Jubilee has a head start, this has a high probability of shrinking once the remaining 25 per cent of the electorate is distributed to each coalition accordingly. Jubilee needs to ensure high voter turn out in their zones as they did in 2013, while locking in as much of the swing zones as they can.

Scenario 2 is a run-off. The complacency and laissez-faire attitude displayed towards the re-election of the president is an early sign of confusion or worse still, paralysis. And this is dangerous because it almost certainly means defeat. Runoffs favour the underdog. There are two reasons for this. Normally, turnout of the electorate is considerably lower in the second round of voting. At this stage, opposition parties tend to combine forces against the incumbent.

First round

A review of elections in African countries that have a two round system of voting show that incumbents almost always tend to lose during the run-off stage.

The findings also show that those who emerged top of the pile during the first round of voting, lost the election during the second vote. This is how Ellen Johnson Sirleaf became President of Liberia in 2005. The same happened in the Ivory Coast in 2010, Tunisia in 2014, Central African Republic in 2016 and Benin in 2016.

According to Niccolo Machiavelli, a wise prince anticipates future troubles and deals with them at once, and on his own terms. He says “when problems are noted before they occur, it is easy to remedy them. But if you wait until they approach, the medicine application is too late because the illness has become incurable.” If Uhuru and Ruto keep holding hands with complacency, they may have a rude awakening on August 8th.

The writer is a PhD candidate in Political Economy at SMC University, Switzerland and a Research Fellow at the Fort Hall School of Government.

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