ODM campaign strategy in Central fails to impress

By Wainaina Ndungu

The outcome of recent by-elections could have cast doubt on Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s strategy to woo central Kenya.

Raila has recently forged close ties with former Mungiki leader Maina Njenga, who is perceived to enjoy the support of youth.

But if the outcome of the Kangema by-election is anything to go by, then the PM has a long way to go in trying to entice the elusive region.

Njenga’s Mkenya Solidarity party candidate John Gathogo faired dismally garnering a paltry 400 votes.

Raila even held a joint rally with Njenga in Kangema to campaign for the candidate.  Before his recent dalliance with the former Mungiki leader, the PM had former Attorney General Charles Njonjo, Kiambaa MP Stanley Githunguri, and businessman Peter Kuguru as his allies in the region.

The dismal performance of the candidate who appeared allied to Raila’s ODM has opened debate on whether the party’s campaign strategy has failed in central Kenya.

A relative of former area MP and Cabinet minister John Michuki said the votes garnered by the Mkenya candidate were from his family, a few immediate neighbours, and a handful diehard supporters of Njenga and Mkenya party.

“When the ODM allies clearly let it be known they were seeking to underline historical fault lines between the large colonial loyalist Michuki wa Kagwi clan and descendants of the Mau Mau supporters, their goose was cooked,” said the Michuki clan member speaking on condition of anonymity.

This relative said the ODM strategy disfranchised a large voting block in the constituency since there were many more loyalist families outside the Michuki clan as well. Those families, according to the influential clan member who was close to the late MP, do not want to be dragged back to the ugly communal split over freedom struggle. A family member of the Mkenya candidate said he was handicapped from day one because the ordinary village shopkeeper depended entirely on the goodwill of his party and its allies like ODM for funding.

“The expected funding was erratic, inadequate and controlled by other persons when it did come. Githaiga was just not in control of his campaign,” said the source.

Fault lines

Speaking ahead of the launch of their candidate’s campaign during a colourful procession in Murang’a town last month, the ODM Central Kenya campaign co-ordinator and Mathira parliamentary aspirant Peter Kuguru said they wanted to exploit the traditional fault lines between colonial loyalists (Ngati) and freedom fighters during the Mau Mau war to appeal to pro-reform descendants who are craving for a break from continuity exemplified by the Late Michuki and TNA leader Uhuru Kenyatta.

But that strategy seems to have fallen flat on the feet during the Kangema and civic by-elections in the region, which TNA allies scooped.

ODM Nyeri county chairman and Othaya parliamentary candidate Githinji Wangondu said the Mkenya performance in Kangema could be described as nothing more than “dismal”. Wangondu, one of Raila’s adherents in the region, blamed the dismal performance on lack of clarity over the integration between Mkenya and ODM, which had resulted in the fronting of 38-year-old Githaiga for the seat.

“It appears the top ODM command contracted Mkenya without consulting the grassroots leadership. That explains why there was very minimal participation from the ODM grassroots leadership in the by-elections,” said Wangondu.

He says a second factor played against the Mkenya candidate. Like Kuguru, Wangondu says the party knows that the bulk of their support base in Central and Mt Kenya lies in the youthful “pro-change” constituency. “The turn out in this by-election was markedly low and there were very minimal youth participation. Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that many are not registered,” he says.

Another ODM Central official echoes this claim.  CN Mbugua, the Kiambu County ODM secretary and Gatundu South parliamentary candidate, says the party had substantial youth support in Kangema “in headcount but not necessarily in votecount” because many are not registered voters.

Mbugua also supports Wangondu’s sentiments that ODM and Mkenya’s engagement remains largely undefined especially at structural level.

“The fact that there were no nominations meant that we squandered an opportunity to gauge our support at an earlier stage not to say to identify a most potential candidate,” says Mbugua.

The ODM official, who will be seeking to succeed Deputy Prime minister Uhuru Kenyatta as MP, says Mkenya candidates who were entered in the TNA support bases during the Monday by-elections were “not necessarily for winning”.

“One of the important messages we are sending through the by-elections was that the present attempt by TNA to forcefully consolidate its like minded allies under its umbrella are simply outdated, one party politics. We want to stand in solidarity with the parties that have opposed this blackmail,” said Mbugua.

TNA leaders in central Kenya said ODM’s poor performance in the region could be blamed on the campaign strategy especially attempts to gain inroads through influential kingmakers such as former Attorney General Charles Njonjo and retired Anglican Archbishop David Gitari.

Raila is also known to have a soft spot for political mavericks such as former ministers Waruru Kanja, Kenneth Matiba, and Charles Rubia. He has also been working closely with families of Mau Mau leader Field Marshal Dedan Kimathi and controversial former Mau Mau insider and firebrand Nyandarua North MP Josiah JM Kariuki.

Among those working for the ODM campaign team are Michael Rubia, the eldest son of Charles Rubia, who is the ODM Murang’a chairman and JM’s daughter Rosemary Machua who is married to former Nairobi councillor Kariuki Machua, who is close to ODM Nairobi mayor George Aladwa.

Connection with Mungiki

Uhuru’s close ally and former Gatanga MP David Murathe early this year said ODM won’t get much mileage by using “ineffective burnt out” leaders who are no more than “puffed up hecklers”.

“We shall wait to see how many votes the leaders have engaged brings to their basket in the next elections,” Murathe said after a vicious attack on the TNA leader by Njonjo and Gitari during a harambee for an Anglican Church sponsored hospital in Gichugu, Kirinyaga County, in honour of Bishop Gitari’s late father.

Aside from that while Njenga had committed himself to working with ODM and appeared with Raila to campaign for Githaiga, he angered many central Kenya ODM insiders, including Kuguru, when during the launch of the campaigns he seemed to veer of the script when he appeared to not only disown his allies but also to declare interest in running for president.

Residents had also said Mkenya’s connection with the dreaded Mungiki would be a disaster for the candidate.

Wangondu concurred saying Kangema having been one of the hot beds of the Mungiki revolt, deaths and subsequent mop-ups spearheaded by Michuki, the youth might shun Mkenya, which they did.