The three way presidential competition

A political rally in Kenya. [File,Standard]

An air of desperation has crept into the national body politics as Kenya approaches the August 2027 General Election. The desperate are leaders of three political groupings who discuss political deals and potential coalitions. There is William Ruto and his UDA affiliates as joined by scattered ODM political fragments that are fighting for political survival. Another grouping comprises the Kalonzo Musyoka-affiliated parties, plagued by the weight of political prima donnas who pull in different directions. Finally is the emerging Edwin Sifuna grouping of mainly the youth shouting “Mimi Ni Sifuna” and chanting “Niko Kadi”. The stiff competition among the three is likely to lead to a re-run in the 2027 election because no candidate would garner the required 50+1 majority vote.

In the opposition circles, there is an assumption that Ruto has already lost before the vote and the result announcement because of his purported unpopularity. This is similar to what happened in 1992 when politicians assumed that Daniel Arap Moi had lost because he was unpopular. Despite not having the same political maneuvering room as Moi did, Ruto still commands state machinery and resources. A good student of Moi’s school of political manipulations, Ruto’s scheming ability disorganizes rivals. He proved this ability by scattering Raila’s ODM. He also lures politicians into ridiculing themselves as they try to maintain a semblance of sanity. Sabina Chege, in trying to persuade people to welcome Ruto to Murang’a, for instance, sounded desperate, promising to do something peculiar. Having failed to make Raila Odinga climb the Mountain in 2022, she switched to Ruto’s side as a “tutam” cheerleader in a “wantam” zone. When Raila died, Oburu Oginga tried to inherit the ODM party as Ruto’s point man and sounded desperate, promising to go to Canaan by way of ‘Singapore’. While Sabina and Oburu are seemingly Ruto mesmerized, others distance themselves from him.

The others include the ‘United Opposition’ and the rising Sifuna team. Besides their seeming unity against Ruto, the two groupings compete for the presidency, hold rival popularity rallies that castigate everything Ruto, and seem to believe that Ruto has already lost the election. The United Opposition, with its many prima donnas, faces the challenge of remaining united. Besides Kalonzo, it includes Rigathi Gachagua, aka Riggy G or Wamunyoro, Fred Matiang’i, Eugene Wamalwa, Justin Muturi, Martha Karua, Okiya Omtata, and David Maraga.

Former Deputy President Gachagua, bitter with Ruto for organizing his impeachment, campaigns on two fronts: the desire to be accepted as a leader or Muthamaki in the Mountain region and vengeance against Ruto’s inability to be reliable. His silver tongue coins slogans, excites crowds, encourages his ‘messianic’ cravings, and is successful in making Ruto uncomfortable. Matiangi, a former super minister in Uhuru’s government, was a World Bank operative, leads the Jubilee party, and has Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka’s support in flexing political muscles. Former National Speaker Muturi leads Mwai Kibaki’s Democratic Party, DP, and appears to support Kalonzo, who became the man of the opposition when in 2024 Raila appeared to betray the Gen Z. Kalonzo commands a large following in Ukambani and is, like Kibaki in the 1990s, everyone’s second choice if the first is not available. A consensus man who is amiable but not forceful, Kalonzo is willing to negotiate pre-election deals with other prima donnas. He, however, has problems roping Sifuna into the consensus.

The Sifuna team, comprising James Orengo, Babu Owino, and Winnie Odinga, has three objectives: to rescue ODM from Ruto, avoid Gachagua, and grab the presidency. Sifuna, eloquent and brave, acquired a ‘saviour’ image that included helping to rehabilitate Raila’s reputation among the youth.

With little time for Gachagua or the Oburu-Wanga-Junet ODM wing, Sifuna forced Oburu’s faction to start demanding ‘respect’ in relation to Ruto. The emerging three-way political rivalry, with each side garnering at least one million votes, the August 2027 presidential election will most likely have a re-run