The curse of the favourite in our top level politics

Raila Odinga’s journey from an underdog in the 1997 elections to a clear favourite in 2007, and a formidable force thereafter, was built on a foundation of political alliances and relentless campaigning. [File, Standard]

Bunge la Mwananchi Jeevanjee elections, which saw defeat of the seemingly favoured Joakim Simiyu by the lesser-known Lawrence Oyugi, offer a valuable case study in Kenyan politics. Simiyu, a clear frontrunner in the public eye, had an extensive media presence, featuring on numerous podcasts and social platforms.

His high visibility and popular appeal made his loss perplexing to many. However, a deeper analysis reveals a phenomenon I term the “curse of the favourite” versus the “blessing of the underdog.” This principle, applicable across various fields from business to sports, is particularly relevant to politics.