A glimpse into post coronavirus world

An empty Street in downtown Toronto, Canada on March 23, 2020 because of stay at home directive by Canadian government. [Courtesy]

One of the most fascinating books I have ever read is 'Brave New World' by Aldous Huxley, published in 1932.

Its biological inclination would make it an interesting read during the coronavirus (Covid-19) disruption.

In the futuristic world of Huxley, cloning was common and so is use of soma, a calming drug. His world mirrors our world today where pathogens such as coronavirus are ravaging us.

Cloning is real, kept off from humans by ethics, not lack of science. Soma resembles the use of recreational drugs like cocaine or bhang.

The book only competes with another futuristic book, 1984 by George Orwell which threw lots of satire on communism. I wonder what Orwell would say about China today.

Huxley dates years as AF, “After Ford” the father of the assembly line. Maybe, we should change our dates to AC or After Covid-19.

The post-Covid-19 world is hard to predict. The worlds Huxley and Orwell predicted did not really turn out the way they thought.

They extrapolated from the realities of their days. Both wrote after upheavals of World War I and II, when lives were disrupted just as covid-19 is disrupting ours. For Huxley, technology was in ascendancy, and social norms were being challenged.

Remember the rolling 1920s which spilled into Kenya through the Happy Valley lot? For Orwell, communism was on the rise, an antithesis of democracy and liberalism.

Let us try the same extrapolation without the hindsight of a prophet.

The best way to analyse the post Covid-19 world is to look at issues first at global level, then cascade them down to the local level. The first victim of Covid-19 is globalisation.

Once the pandemic was declared, everyone headed home, unfortunately taking the disease with him or her.

For once, “home is best” ceased being a cliché. Once Covid-19 has run its course, or is subdued either through a vaccine or cure, globalisation will return with a vengeance, with China as the epicentre.

Trade, business and tourism will flourish again. And remember, ideas and information ride on globalisation - we still need it.

We are unlikely to get tired of seeking new experiences and adventure.

How can globalisation die when we are already venturing into space?

It is unlikely that economic blocs and integration will become irrelevant, Brexit apart. Beyond setbacks to globalisation, Covid-19 will give World Health Organisation new prominence and more funding.

We could even get a health keeping force made of a reserve of doctors just like UN peace keeping force, ready to be dispatched to health hot spots.

Diplomatic missions could get health attachés. Espionage could spill into medical field, beyond technology.

Foreign delegations will include medical doctors. After September 11, physical security became the norm at airports. Will medical checks become the new norm?

Will there be passengers on no fly lists because of their medical conditions? It is conceivable that after Covid-19, airlines or embassies will ask for your DNA sample before giving you a visa. Will medical diplomacy become the next frontier in international relations? Covid-19 will force us to focus on the unintended consequences of globalisation and the upcoming manned space exploration. Risk management at global level will gain new prominence.

Hygiene, more than blockbuster drugs could also gain more prominence. On geo-economics, what will it mean to be transnational?

What will it mean to diversify across regions and countries? Will our faith in capitalism be shaken?

Think of it, business is about interaction which goes against the pandemic. Could that prolong the recovery once virus is subdued? How will nations handle joblessness and the political consequences?

While the low crude oil prices may mitigate the effects for oil importing countries, it will devastate economies of exporters. Closer home; the 2010 constitution brought in the tyranny of lawyers. Will Covid-19 usher in the tyranny of medics?

Shall we have medics snapping key posts in both public and private sectors? Will our next president be a medical doctor? Shall we finally start respecting professionals and experts?

One unintended consequence of Covid-19 is big government.

Political leaders often use emergencies to accumulate more power as it has happened in Hungary where the premier got sweeping powers. Will there be a contest between liberalism and communism or socialism?

The puncturing of BBI by Covid-19 could mean new constitutional dispensations once we revert to politics as usual. Shall we demand a powerful president to deal with crisis?

The success of China in turning the tide of Covid-19 has a lot to do with authoritarian regime.

Let us watch Kenya vs her neighbours in the fight against coronavirus. The pandemic is giving us a glimpse into governments across the globe and how effective they are.

Crises are the best tests of institutional robustness, including governments.  By the time the virus runs its course, we shall have a different view of our leaders and institutions.

The pandemic came when we were just complaining about ‘political failures’ getting back into our government. Will it prove it was a wrong strategy and demand a return to meritocracy witnessed after the end of KANU era? What of the private sector? How will it look like after Covid-19? The first casualty will be outsourcing. I am sure US President Donald Trump must be smiling.

With disruptions in the supply chains, countries may be tempted to develop own industries. Will economists declare the comparative advantage dead? The telecommunication sector will enter its golden age.

Think of the amount of texting, video conferencing and payments. It is unlikely we shall go back to cash. 

Telcos will change other sectors irreversibly. Think of education and legal profession. Will banks approve our loans online and follow the examples set by apps that took advantage of interest rate cap? It seems, innovations will blossom in telcos.

Interestingly, the virus will make us realise how inefficient we have been, doing lots of unnecessary things. Blurring the border between home and work place is another consequence.

That might make our lives more fulfilling, living with our families, watching the kids grow. Corona could make us shift faster to universal healthcare.

The universality of Covid-19 and future viruses may force countries to think across social-economic classes.

The virus has equated us. Some argue it is regressing the world back to the mean, there is too much inequality and extremity.

Housing will change after Covid-19. Shall we finally disperse the slums to avoid future crises? How and why did we let them grow? Will that lead to higher rents and labour costs?

Why didn’t devolution disperse the slums? Will housing regulations become tighter? Manufacturing could benefit from reduction in outsourcing. But quality must be upped and prices reduced. Will the cost of inputs like power reduce to make manufacturing viable?

Food security and nutrition will remain a valid focus with or without Covid-19. The virus may also force us to think differently on what it means to be human and how we relate with other people.

The writer is an associate professor at the University of Nairobi