Why the BBI is keeping me awake at night

The usual bustle in Nairobi’s Central Business District. Will BBI usher in Kenya’s economic golden age? [Collins Kweyu, Standard]

The current BBI report is a compromise document. But going by the political rallies scheduled to popularise the 156-page report - which I am sure most Kenyans have not read - it seems what is not in the report matters more than what’s in it.

The extension of the BBI task force’s term was a pointer that more issues will make their way into the document, depending on the political mood being gauged through rallies.

A number of proposals floated in the rallies keep we awake at night. One is the obsession with political posts and, two, the end game. Could BBI be a Trojan Horse?

The BBI leaves the governance structure intact except adding the prime minister position. The post would go to the party or coalition with majority in parliament, appointed by the president.

Now there is a call for a powerful prime minister. The reasoning is that we could get a president too powerful and he needs a countervailing force in a powerful PM. It’s not clear who the powerful president proponents have in mind, but your guess is as good as mine.

What the proponents are not saying loudly is that by having a PM appointed by the president, presidential polls will be easier to win and less expensive. Just ensure the big five posts envisaged in BBI are given to communities that have numbers. Give credit where it’s due, politicians are cold calculators. The sharing of power between Kibaki and Raila may have toned down the call for a powerful prime minister. The expected antagonism between a powerful prime minister and vice president may be the other fear.

In hushed voices, it has been suggested that the president should be allowed to sack his deputy. Have Kenyans finally realised this is not America?

What is coming out clearly from rally pronouncements is that Kanu blood still flows through the veins of our politicians. The ghosts of Kanu still haunt the nation. When President Moi said Kanu would rule for a 100 years, I think he was serious.

Have you noted how we are dilly-dallying with centralisation despite devolution? Noted the rising political intolerance? It seems, like in Russia, Kenyans still love big men.

The second proposal which is not in the BBI is a three-tier government, like in the United States with national government (federal), state and county. While the framers of the 2010 Constitution borrowed from America, it is not clear why they forgot the third tier. That does not mean I support it. I am yet to do a plagiarism test on the 2010 Constitution. We asked in the Constitution who would fund the bloated county governments. The answer was “democracy is not cheap..” What was done by a civil servant, like a district commissioner, is done by a governor with his retinue of cabinet executives and other employees, and the perks thereof.

Remember the DC, now county commissioner, is still there. Is ruling Kenyans so hard that we need so many layers of government? The reality is that Kenyans are now so subdued that they no longer ask questions. They are easy to rule and, I must add, exploit. How else did the Opposition die?

Now the counties can boast of their ‘Excellency’ but that is it. The counties are yet to become centres of economic development. They are now better known for high-quality hotels, not factories.

The BBI leaves the counties intact. Why the proposal for the third tier, regions - formerly called provinces? We predicted earlier that provinces will return subtly. The Teachers Service Commission and security services already have regional coordinators.

The proposal for third tier will be couched in economies of scale, that counties are too small and uneconomical to run.  The proponents could even argue that governors are already forming regional economic blocs to benefit from economies of scale.

My hunch tells me that just like in the 2010 Constitution, the regional governments will become another layer for bureaucrats, a fall-back position for politicians who can’t compete at the national level. I am sure second-term governors are smiling at that.

My view, which I am sure no one will pay attention to, is that we should do away with counties and replace them with bigger regions, possibly former provinces. Wards can do what counties do today; devolution to the lowest level. But it is unlikely anyone will support abolishing counties with the money they receive unconditionally from the national government. It is unlikely governors with the resources they control, including jobs and contracts, will give up their positions.

Economic impact

They can always argue that the economic impact of devolution has not been felt because the national government has not given them enough resources. Never mind they ought to generate resources, too. Did you watch the inauguration of the new Kiambu governor?

You will soon hear that regional governments will create jobs. The regional premiers, to borrow from South Africa, will -- like current governors -- have their perks and employees. Any serious economist will confess to you that such job creation is the stuff of voodoo economics.

By having a large bureaucracy, we take away resources that would be used in economic development. Let us be blunt; over 80 per cent of the tax revenue is shared by about 1.58 per cent of the population as wages and salaries -- the 750,000 civil servants and teachers, out of the 47.5 million Kenyans. If more money was diverted strategically to development, we would create more jobs than the 750,000 in the government. And they would be real jobs providing real goods and services. Lots of public sector jobs are hard to define.

One of the unintended consequences of devolution is the emergence of a new elite in the counties. We are one of the few countries where an elite has been created by the government, not the market. They are probably targeted by the new hotels.

Like the 2010 Constitution, politics and the structure of the government is taking centre-stage. Economics gets no airtime. Why is BBI not being linked to Vision 2030? We must ask hard questions. Will the new structures add value to our lives? Will they make governance more efficient? Do more governments make governance easier? Or do more cooks spoil the broth?

It amazes me that other countries settled on their government structure as soon as they became countries or nations. We have made governance structure a laboratory experiment, trying something new every few years. We are doing the same with the education system. The beneficiaries of these experiments are politicians and their appendages; the hoi polloi just cheer on.

The BBI objectives are noble but the key players are human beings with their interests. As more rallies are held, more vested interests will keep emerging. The public cheers on as usual till the proposals become realities.

We hope the BBI will not become the Trojan Horse through which vested interests will become public interests. The end game could be another Constitution more suited to the interests of the elite, not hoi polloi, popularly called Wanjiku.

One hopes the end game will be an ‘economic constitution’ that will usher in Kenya’s golden age. The public could help that happen. Unfortunately, the public views are muted, citizens are too busy at the base of Maslow’s hierarchy. How many citizens attend consultative meetings? How many will read the BBI report?

The feeling of helplessness among the citizenry will allow the elite, read politicians, to have their way. Just watch and wait.

- The writer is an associate professor at the University of Nairobi