The top risk to US growth would come if President-elect Donald Trump keeps his protectionist promises, according to a Reuters poll that shows economists have not joined in the market exuberance since the shock November vote. For most of his campaign and after the election, Trump vowed to make sweeping changes to US trade and immigration policy, threatened to impose steep tariffs on Chinese imports and proposed hefty tax cuts.
While financial markets have retreated in the past week and hopes of a sudden spurt in inflation have faded, US 10-year Treasury yields are still up more than 25 per cent since Election Day, and stocks have hit record highs. Still, more than two-thirds of the 70 respondents to the question in the Reuters survey taken over the past week said Trump’s protectionist policies were the biggest threat to the world’s largest economy this year.