For Kibaki and allies in shuttle diplomacy, the stakes are high

By Gakuu Mathenge

By pushing on with shuttle diplomacy, President Kibaki has staked not only his personal standing, but also Kenya’s image among other nations.

His confidants say he hopes to exploit international geopolitics and strategic interests of United Nations Security Council’s member states in Kenya.

AU passed a resolution in late January to adopt Kenya’s quest for deferral, and Gabon and Nigeria, both non-permanent United Nations Security Council members, are expected to sponsor the deferral agenda on behalf of AU.

To secure a deferral, Kenya needs to secure a minimum of nine votes out of 15, but hope none of the five veto wielding member states reject the decision.

Reap accolades

If they succeed to secure a deferral, Kibaki and Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka stand to reap accolades from their supporters and those of the senior politicians on the Ocampo list.

Kibaki’s rule and legacy were deeply stained by post-election violence, and his aides view a successful shuttle diplomacy as one way of making amends, especially in the Rift Valley, where violence between Kikuyu and Kalenjin communities nearly plunged the country into civil war.

"Kibaki is concerned that his legacy is well served if he restores good relations between the Kikuyu and Kalenjin in the Rift Valley. To have the Ocampo-Six, including Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto, brought back to Kenya for trial goes some distance in achieving that sense of shared destiny," a source said.

But if the shuttle diplomacy flops and no deferral is granted, they would be in for condemnation for bringing Kenya into disrepute and wasting public resources chasing the wind.

Defying opposition

The President’s determination, defying opposing voices from his ODM coalition partners, the civil society and diplomatic voices, has raised the question about what is going for Kibaki in the shuttle diplomacy project?

Does his approach and optimism in the search for a deferral stand a realistic chance?

Some think the President has a realistic chance.

To start with, Kibaki and his aides do not expect either the US or the UK to unleash their vetoes to shoot down a positive vote for deferral.

"Each of the members can vote for, vote against or abstain. But the five permanent members have a fourth option to veto any decision made by all others. But while both the US and UK could vote against or abstain, we do not expect either to veto. The veto is normally reserved for grave issues that threaten world peace and security, I doubt Kenya’s problems with the ICC fall in this purview," says scholar and PNU strategic advisor Peter Kagwanja.

Expressed support

Prof Kagwanja thinks resorting to a veto could be viewed as an absurd use of a sledgehammer to kill a fly.

"What the US and UK ambassadors are saying is aimed at discouraging Kenya to drop the shuttle diplomacy. But the reality is the veto-wielding members are only five, while non-veto members are more than nine. Already, China and Russia have expressed support for the Kenya’s deferral bid," said Kagwanja.

France is said to be ‘highly’ likely to support an AU sponsored agenda, owing to its desire to have the AU on its side in fixing problems in several Franco-phone countries.

French President Nicholas Sarkozy was a guest speaker at the AU’s Heads of State summit that passed a resolution to adopt and support Kenya’s bid for a deferral in Addis Ababa in January.

Among the non-permanent members of the Security Council, Kenya is counting on India, Germany, Bosnia Herzegovina, Colombia, Nigeria, Gabon, Portugal, Brazil and Lebanon.

Transport Minister Chirau Ali Mwakwere has been dispatched to Lebanon.

"If Americans and Britons abstained or voted against the deferral without using their veto powers, Kenya would still be in good standing," said Kagwanja.