Can Kenya break the cycle? The search for credible leadership ahead of 2027

President William Ruto addresses residents after the launch of the Sogoo-Melelo-Ololung'a Road on the second day of his tour of Narok County, May 7, 2025. [Kipsang Joseph, Standard] Is a seismic shift in Kenya's political culture possible? Can Kenyans get credible leaders who can govern with integrity and dignity from the pool of politicians positioning themselves to unseat President William Ruto in the next election? That is the big question as voices critical of President Ruto's government grow louder by the day. Political analysts argue that a paradigm shift can only be achieved through a complete overhaul of the country's socio-political culture, including the criteria citizens use to choose their leaders. It is argued that if Kenyans want different outcomes, they must ultimately change the way they evaluate leadership. Charisma must give way to character. Tribe must yield to track record. Promises must be weighed against past performance. And leaders must be judged not only by what they say, but by who funds them, who surrounds them, and how they respond to scrutiny. Prof Gitile Naituli of Multimedia University believes such a shift requires a reawakening of civic consciousness-an understanding that citizenship is not just about voting but about vigilance, participation, and shared responsibility. It means rejecting tokenism, resisting bribes, and saying no to personality cults. It means holding family members, neighbours, and colleagues to higher standards when they seek public office. "The question is not whether Kenya can elect credible leaders from a discredited system. It is whether Kenyans, especially the young, are willing to change the system by refusing to play by its rules," adds Naituli. A ray of hope had emerged during the Gen Z protests last year, when the government appeared to be listening. But that momentum now seems to have dissipated. In the meantime, President Ruto is brimming with confidence, boasting that he will make mincemeat of the Opposition in the 2027 election. Likely challengers include Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i, People's Liberation Party leader Martha Karua and her DAP-K counterpart Eugene Wamalwa. Busia Senator Okiya Omtatah, former Chief Justice David Maraga and Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya have also been mentioned as potential candidates. But the question that lingers is how Kenyans will elect credible leaders from a discredited political class. There is also the challenge of an electoral system widely viewed as flawed. The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) is currently undergoing reconstitution, amid intense political bickering over the process. Is it possible to elect credible leaders through a fundamentally flawed electoral process and from a tainted political elite? Dr Martin Oloo of Daystar University's Law Faculty expresses concern about Kenya's personality-driven politics, where major players are more focused on personal social and political survival than on principles. He cites the so-called Broad-Based Government deal between President Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga. "We are hearing murmurs from the ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna that those working with President Ruto's government joined as individuals, which could be true. It is about personalities. It is wrong to say that Broad-Based is about inclusivity because the very nature of forming government is to make it inclusive," says Oloo. Prof Naituli says the Kenyan political playbook is all too familiar: "Recycled rhetoric, ethnic mobilisation, empty promises, and populist stunts designed to manipulate the electorate's hopes and fears." Meanwhile, citizens-especially young people-are becoming increasingly disillusioned, disconnected, and, worryingly, divided. Gen Z, once hailed as the conscience of a new Kenya, now appears fragmented and rudderless. Despite widespread frustration, analysts argue that for Kenya to chart a different political path, citizens must reimagine civic agency, reclaim the democratic process, and reset leadership standards. A former minister in President Daniel arap Moi's government describes Kenya as a pseudo-democracy with very weak institutions. "We still have a long way to go. It has taken the US over 200 years," he says. The veteran politician describes Kenya as a "fixed democracy", characterised by an election season and set date, followed by five years of authoritarianism and misgovernance, during which leaders misuse public resources and power with impunity. At the heart of the crisis is what some call the illusion of democratic choice. Every election cycle presents a familiar cast of candidates-largely from the same political class-many of whom carry the baggage of corruption or are entrenched in patronage networks. "The dominant political parties are not ideological platforms but transactional alliances whose core function is to win power," says Naituli. He adds that the structural decay means elections often lack real alternatives, with the same faces resurfacing under new slogans and recycled promises. Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka says Kenya has effectively become a failed state due to poor leadership and rampant corruption. He proposes a People's Assembly-an inclusive convention for leaders to listen to what Kenyans truly want their country to become. "Here is a country where leaders don't obey court orders, militia are operating with abandon, and abductions are acknowledged by the government," says Onyonka. Onyonka argues that the now-common post-election "handshakes" are symptoms of Kenya's dysfunction-not genuine gestures of inclusion or bridge-building. "Elected leaders are corrupt, and they are peddling money everywhere, including in the National Assembly. Some in the Judiciary also stand accused," he says. Naituli argues that leadership in Kenya is personalised rather than institutionalised. Even credible aspirants struggle to gain traction due to exorbitant campaign costs, ethnic bloc voting, and the lack of internal party democracy. In such an environment, he warns, the ballot risks becoming a tool to legitimise impunity rather than a vehicle for genuine transformation. Little can be achieved without first fixing the electoral system, he says, as credible leadership begins long before election day. "It starts with creating a robust leadership pipeline grounded in merit, values, and accountability. Political parties must be compelled, through law and citizen pressure, to democratise their nomination processes. Public campaign financing laws, long ignored, must be enforced to level the playing field," says Naituli. The IEBC must also undergo significant reforms to ensure independence, transparency, and integrity throughout the electoral process, from voter registration and party nominations to tallying and dispute resolution. But laws alone are not enough. Naituli calls for civil society, religious institutions, professional bodies, and the media to rebuild platforms that can identify, vet, and promote credible candidates. "We need leadership incubators that mentor, resource, and support individuals committed to public service," he says. Gen Z occupies a paradoxical place in Kenya's political imagination. On one hand, they are digital natives-unburdened by the ethnic divisions of their parents and highly expressive online. On the other, they face crushing economic realities: unemployment, underemployment, and high living costs that have bred disillusionment and apathy. "The potential of Gen Z as a transformative force remains untapped, partly due to a lack of political education, mentorship, and organising infrastructure. Many youths are energised online but remain disengaged offline. Others are lured into factional online wars by political operatives or retreat into escapism and nihilism," says Naituli. To translate their energy into impact, Gen Z must organise beyond hashtags-by registering to vote, forming or joining issue-based movements, attending town halls, analysing manifestos, and holding leaders accountable beyond elections. Prof Naituli also calls for the creation of dynamic, youth-led civic platforms that transcend tribal and class divisions to articulate a unified vision of Kenya that serves all. He sees the 2027 General Election not merely as another contest, but as a referendum on whether Kenyans have learned from their past-or are doomed to repeat it.

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