Ruto in China: A toast to future ties or strategic game against the West?

President William Ruto, accompanied by his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping acknowledge grreetings from school children at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China. President William Ruto, who is on a state visit to China, said that Kenya will strengthen co-operation with China to confront challenges and push for shared success. In particular, he said Kenya will upgrade her infrastructure to promote connectivity, hence facilitate trade in Kenya and within the region. [PCS] For those that may not be in the know, the Chinese people and culture emphasises on building a friendship as a precursor to their diplomatic, trade and social engagements. For instance, if a Chinese invites you to dine together, expect to do a lot of toasts for friendship in the course of the meal. With this understanding, it is curious why Beijing chose to host President William Ruto for a State visit in under a year after a similar honour by the United States. This is particularly significant given the fact that the US and China are presently embroiled in a bitter trade war over tariffs. Notably, Ruto presumably received a low-key reception the last time he made an official visit to Beijing in October 2023. Could the Xi Jinping administration be trying to pull the rug out from the US? President Ruto himself implied as much on one of his public addresses when he intimated that he is the first African president to have been honoured with a State visit by Beijing this year, not long after a similar treat by former US President, Joe Biden. The choice of Ruto's war against the pre-existing US driven multilateral order manifested in a public lecture at Peking University is also quite telling. Based on video recordings shared online, the President attacked the structure of the powerful UN Peace and Security Council, the Bretton Woods backed global financial system, architecture of global trade and the negative impacts of climate change, especially for poor countries. Looking back, these are the very same issues that he raised at his maiden appearance at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in September 2022 that drew the attention of world leaders to himself. Then, he was only a few days in office and little known at the global stage. Out of his bold assertions then, Kenya found its way into the heart of the Haiti civil conflict and the ensuing bromance with Western allies. This warm relations with the West was only slowed down by the President's handling of the Gen-Z revolution mid last year. However, the President has previously been hosted by South Korea in November 2022 and Japan in February 2024 for official visits. Unlike his immediate two predecessors who openly leaned towards the East for developmental assistance and credit, the Ruto administration has been lukewarm at best. The questions now open for discussion are: will Ruto finally leverage on the honour accorded to him by Beijing to turn his back on the West and seek sustainable developmental alliances in the East like his predecessors? Not known to miss opportunities, will the President negotiate for sustainable mutual benefits for the country or would it be about advancing his private interests? In his lecture at Peking University, the President sought to emphasise the centrality of the people in any developmental and bilateral engagements. This is the basis upon which the Chinese economic renaissance has been built on. Chairman Mao Zedong proclaimed the founding of the People's Republic of China in October 1, 1949. This philosophy is widely shared and owned by the Chinese people. For instance, it is very common to hear ordinary people use the term ''we the Chinese people' in normal conversation in the streets when commenting or discussing a matter of public interest. On the contrary, this philosophical architecture that Ruto alluded to is in conflict with the lived reality in Kenya, where public leadership prioritises appropriation of State resources for private gains as opposed to public interest. In fact, to many ordinary Kenyans, Ruto is in China either on a begging mission that they do not approve or for another moment to enjoy himself. The President acknowledged as much in a public comment where he said it is very rare to for him to receive any compliment from a Kenyan. The question open for debate then is why would Kenyans be so skeptical of their own duly elected President? Does it mean that Kenyans dislike their President this much or is it because he has not done much the improve their lives? This brings us to the take homes that must come out of this extended State visit to the Dragon economy. From multiple data sources, there have been significant improvements in Kenya's exports to China. However, trade flows between the two countries remain highly skewed in favour of China. For example, according to data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity organisation, Chinese exports to Kenya in February 2025 amounted to $547 million (or 71.1 billion) while Kenya's exports to China the same month was a paltry $23.5 million (Sh.3.06 billion). The variety of Kenya's export to China is also very limited, largely frozen Avacado's and rare minerals, while Chinese exports to Kenya are literary about anything from household goods to engineering equipment. According to data from General Administration of Customs in China, exports to Kenya in quarter one of 2025 grew by 11.8 per cent on year-on-year comparison while imports grew by 13.2 per cent. The main exports to Kenya over the period included intermediate goods, consumer products and capital goods in the proportions of 11.4, 10.1 and 10.4 respectively. Export of engineering equipment (bulldozers) grew by 112.4 per cent, excavators 190.6 per cent and cranes grew by 7.1 times. With hindsight, this data indicates that the dominance of Chinese construction companies in Kenya's infrastructure development also comes complete with the required equipment. Thus, the 40 per cent procurement requirement to source local materials and equipment only exist on paper. Going back to the friendship concept that underlie the Chinese diplomatic and geo-political engagements, the rapid growth of the Chinese economy offers strategic opportunities for Kenya. First, it is the opportunity to access new technology. China has developed their own indigenous technologies, e-commerce systems and social media platforms like WeChat app that Kenya can leverage on to diversify from the American dominance. This offers a more affordable alternative to drive the digital transformation and creative economy. For example, it is easier for content creators to monetise their creatives on TikTok than on YouTube. Secondly, China now has the largest middle-class cohort in the world, after outpacing both the US and India. Chinese middle-class has grown from a paltry three per cent of the population (34 million people) in 1990, to an estimated 50.8 per cent (more than 400 million people or 140 million households) by 2019. Internet penetration has grown from 1.8 per cent in 2000 to 80 per cent presently. The Chinese middle-class offers a great opportunity not only to grow but also to diversify our tourism market. In 2024, Kenya received an estimated 80,000 tourist arrivals from China. Suppose we could target just one per cent of Chinese 400 million wealthy individuals to tour Kenya? That would translate to about four million tourists and about 40 per cent of the 10 million annual target. To achieve this, all we need is to offer unbeatable incentives and abolish unnecessary bureaucracies for Chinese people to tour Kenya under the shared friendship philosophy. Contrary to popular beliefs out there, the Chinese people are fun lovers, exotic shoppers, explorers and adventures. I know this well because I lived among the Chinese people for three years under the generosity of their taxes. When I lived among them, it was common to hear about their voyages to Europe, the America's and Australia for holidays, shopping and education from ordinary people in the streets. Why can't we make Kenya one of their preferred destinations?

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