'Don't trust him': How NIS midwifed Ruto-Raila power deal

President William Ruto poses in front of Minesh Rathod car at State House Nairobi on March 15, 2025. [Courtesy] A warning by the National Intelligence Service (NIS) that giving the opposition the National Assembly's Majority Leader position could expose him to impeachment led to a strategic retreat by President William Ruto. The intelligence briefing -- which followed Raila Odinga's unsuccessful bid for the African Union Commission chairmanship -- came at a time when ODM was pushing for significant positions in both Parliament and the Executive. This pressure prompted Ruto to reach a deal with the opposition party, offering key parliamentary and Cabinet positions to secure the stability of his presidency. "Some people are making noise, claiming that I have abandoned them and joined Ruto. But I did not go to Ruto-Ruto came to me," Raila said in response to criticism that he had used last year's Gen-Z-led protests as leverage for a stake in Ruto's government. Raila's engagement with Ruto began after demonstrators stormed Parliament on June 25, 2024, in protest against the Finance Bill. In exchange for support, Ruto agreed to back Raila's bid for the AU post. Raila ultimately lost the February 15 vote to Djibouti's Mahmoud Ali Youssouf. In a post on X, Moussa Mohamed Omar, a communication expert at Djibouti's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, argued that the vote reflected African leaders' rejection of Kenyan domestic politics influencing the AU. "Claiming Africa 'lost an opportunity' is dishonest. Thirty-three heads of state chose Mahmoud, the right choice for Africa's challenges, refusing to let the AU be hostage to Kenyan domestic politics. Africa deserved better than Raila," Omar wrote. Speaking to The Standard in confidence, a close ally of President Ruto, who is an MP from Rift Valley, explained that the NIS had informed the President that the Majority Leader position was too powerful to be left in opposition hands. READ: Beyond the handshake: How Raila peace deal with Ruto stands out "The NIS warned that the Majority Leader could undermine the government's agenda in Parliament, including the Budget, and create an opportunity for impeachment," the MP said. High Court ruling This sentiment was echoed by a State House aide, who elaborated that the NIS had advised the President to use Raila's current goodwill to secure control of Parliament. President Ruto and former PM Raila Odinga join thousands of soccer enthusiasts in cheering Harambee Stars playing against Gabon at the Nyayo National Stadium, Nairobi County on March 23, 2025. [PCS] "The intelligence team told the President that leaving Parliament to the opposition would lead to a crisis. He was advised to trade anything for the Majority Leader's seat and ensure Wetang'ula remained Speaker," the aide explained. Just before the AU vote, the High Court ruled that Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya Alliance was the rightful Majority party, overturning Speaker Wetang'ula's 2022 ruling that had favoured Kenya Kwanza. The court declared Wetang'ula's decision unconstitutional, reinstating 14 Azimio members and nullifying his earlier ruling. Following this, ODM demanded the Majority Leader position, five additional Cabinet posts, and more Principal Secretary roles. In addition to the Majority Leader position, currently held by Kimani Ichung'wah, ODM also sought Musalia Mudavadi's Prime Cabinet Secretary post, Wetang'ula's Speaker seat, and more Cabinet slots. Under Kenya's Constitution, the Majority Leader plays a key role in legislative processes, influencing parliamentary debate and decisions. The NIS is said to have communicated these concerns to Ruto, warning that ceding the Majority Leader position to Raila's camp would create a direct path to impeachment. An impeachment motion requires the support of at least one-third (116 MPs) of the National Assembly. If two-thirds (233 MPs) vote in favour, the motion proceeds to the Senate, where a special committee investigates. A final vote by two-thirds (45 out of 67 senators) would seal the President's fate. Facing rising rebellion within his coalition and an energized opposition, Ruto quickly struck a deal with Raila. Rather than concede the Majority Leader position, he negotiated a power-sharing arrangement that saw ODM secure the leadership of key parliamentary committees. ALSO READ: Fooling Kenyans: Ruto-Raila deal about power and survival "The ODM Party of Kenya and the UDA Party of Kenya have signed a roadmap MOU to address Kenya's social, economic, and political challenges," Raila said after the agreement. "We have also acknowledged the need to create a broad platform for collaboration and cooperation to resolve long-standing issues." Impeachment fears In the high-stakes negotiations, Ruto's camp offered ODM key positions. Butere MP Tindi Mwale was elected chair of the influential Public Accounts Committee (PAC), a role traditionally held by the opposition, which oversees government spending. Garissa Woman Rep Amina Siyad secured the vice-chair position. "Giving ODM these positions has quieted their noise, and the President can now breathe easier," said a UDA MP. "Had they secured the Majority Leader position, they could have frustrated government business or backed an impeachment motion, making it difficult for UDA to govern." Ruto allowed ODM to take several other lucrative seats, resulting in internal disputes within the party as rival factions supported different candidates. This forced Majority Whip Sylvanus Osoro and Minority Whip Junet Mohammed to intervene. While Ichung'wah retained his post, ODM legislators secured leadership positions in several key committees. They include Samuel Atandi (Budget Committee), James Nyikal (Health Committee), Bernard Shinyali (Trade Committee), Irene Mayaka (Regional Integration), Emmanuel Wangwe (Public Investments Committee on Social Services and Agriculture), Eve Obara (Vice-Chair, Education Committee), John Namoit (Vice-Chair, Public Investments Committee on Energy and Commercial Affairs), and Charles Ongondo Were (Vice-Chair, National Cohesion and Equal Opportunity Committee). National cohesion The President has defended his MoU with Raila, claiming it strengthens national cohesion and promotes inclusivity. "Kenya has no room for retrogressive politics. We are one people, one nation with a common destiny," Ruto said during a tour of Nairobi last week. Critics have, however, questioned ODM's role in Parliament, arguing that its MPs should not be chairing oversight committees like PAC or PIC, as the party is now formally part of the government through the MoU signed on March 7. "Legally and morally speaking, ODM MPs should not be leading oversight committees," a governance expert stated. "The UDA/ODM MoU invalidates ODM's oversight role." But Raila maintains that ODM, through its leadership of parliamentary committees and the Cabinet, can help address Kenya's many economic challenges. "ODM members of the National Assembly recently elected into committee leadership positions visited me. We discussed economic issues affecting Kenyans that Parliament must address urgently," Raila said. The shift in parliamentary leadership underscores ODM's growing influence in government. While the NIS has been credited with averting a political crisis for Ruto, its role has come under scrutiny. NIS Director-General Noordin Haji has faced criticism over alleged intelligence failures, including botched security operations and the widespread abduction of government critics. Public Service Cabinet Secretary Justin Muturi has accused NIS of abducting his son during the Gen-Z protests. ALSO READ: Raila shakes hands for the fourth time in name of unity "I heard the President ask [NIS Director] Noordin Haji if he was holding my son. [He] confirmed that indeed he was, and the President instructed him to release Leslie immediately," Muturi said. Political analyst Herman Manyora explained that politics is about power. "Politics is not a game of love. People always take advantage of situations and people," Manyora said. "It is a game of opportunities-identify them, grab them and run." Sifuna marking scheme He noted that after last year's protests, Raila had two options: seize the moment and take power or support Ruto. "There is a public belief that Raila may not be strong enough to challenge Ruto's re-election, but things change," Manyora said. "One thing I know-Raila will, in the end, side with the masses. He might even decide to run." ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna has warned that the party will withdraw from its agreement with UDA if the Memorandum of Understanding is breached. Sifuna said that, as secretary general, he will ensure the government adheres to the MoU. Speaking at a funeral in Machakos on Saturday, the Nairobi Senator said the ten-point agenda forms the foundation of the deal. "After we signed the MoU, I will sit with the marking scheme. There are ten agendas in that agreement. If another Kenyan is abducted, UDA will have breached the agreement," he said.

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