State of the Nation: One year later, jury is still out on Ruto's promises

President William Ruto makes an address during the opening of the 13th Parliament on September 29, 2022. [Boniface Okendo, Standard] President William Ruto should be cracking his head over the shortfalls from his last State of the Nation address and areas of improvement as he prepares to make his second speech to both Houses of Parliament. In his first address to a joint sitting on September 29, 2022, he spelt out his legislative agenda in an event that also doubled up as the official opening of the 13th Parliament. The president informed the MPs that his administration would openly pursue a transformational agenda which included overhauling the country's social security infrastructure to make it more inclusive. As to whether that has been actualised, the jury is still out there, although many analysts paint a gloomy picture of what Ruto's administration has achieved so far. Growth measures He also addressed the status of Kenya's national debt and outlined measures his government was putting in place to spur the economy without encouraging further borrowing. "Measures include inculcating a domestic savings culture whereby for every two shillings saved, the government offers a one-shilling incentive and cutting down on recurrent expenditure," said Dr Ruto. At the time, Dr Ruto promised a new trajectory in government spending that would have embraced austerity measures, telling the bicameral House how he had directed the National Treasury to review the 2022/ 2023 budget to cut off Sh300 billion non-essential budgetary considerations. Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi, however, says that although Ruto's government pledged to cut borrowing and restructure government debt, in 10 months the administration had borrowed more than what Uhuru Kenyatta did in a similar period. In his address, Dr Ruto further promised to kick off a national savings drive to encourage those in the informal sector to set up their own retirement plans while actualising Universal Health Coverage, among other measures in his bottom-up transformational agenda. The President further informed the two Houses that he would be forwarding some legislative proposals for their consideration to operationalise some of his election pledges. Some analysts opine that not much of what was promised has been achieved this far, but what does the future portend for the Kenya Kwanza administration? Historian Prof Macharia Munene thinks that there's a possibility for improvement, but only when the president changes his modus operandi and listens to good advice. "He is rumoured not to be listening very well. (He is said to be) making decisions on his own and forcing others to go along with it in total disregard of whether they are right or wrong," says Prof Munene. That impression is not good for him and his government, meaning that he may have to change to be seen as someone who is more listening and caring. Prof Macharia says the president will definitely try to justify his actions in the State of the Nation address, but it will take a lot of effort to convince Kenyans that they are in a better place than he found them. Prof Munene argues that President Ruto faces a serious problem in his domestic and international policy approaches, largely because he appears to be quick to comment on things instead of waiting for proper briefing and advise. Parliament Buildings, Nairobi. [File, Standard] He, for example, thinks that Dr Ruto made a mistake by agreeing with President Joe Biden request to send 1,000 police officers to Haiti. To the don, that was a mistake which he would have been advised against through consultation, but the president moved too quickly. "He has a challenge of meeting that expectation (by the international community to Haiti) or finding a way of getting out of it because it is not looking good. That was a clear indication that he does not consult and is easily persuaded by foreigners," says Prof Munene. Sword of Damocles Political analyst Martin Andati says that Dr Ruto, in his State of the Nation address, will most likely point at programmes such as housing projects, the Universal Health Coverage that was recently launched, the university education funding model and the Hustler Fund as areas of success for his government. The overriding factor that will continue hanging over his head like the Sword of Damocles, however, is how to contain the cost of living, when the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are pushing for removal of more subsidies. "The next to be hit will be secondary schools, because from the look of things, the government in the coming days will most likely do away with subsidies on secondary education, which will make education very expensive for ordinary Kenyans," says Andati. He sees a bleaker situation for Dr Ruto when making his third address to Parliament next year, because the effect of structural adjustment programmes by the Bretton Woods institutions will only make things worse. He advances that there is a sense of betrayal and disillusionment among the populace, largely because the government has failed to deliver on what it had promised. In his address, the president is expected to assure Kenyans that all promises he made will be fulfilled but the ability to deliver will only be realised through adequate funding in a constrained financial environment. "Where is the ability to deliver, first in terms of manpower because most of the people he picked are plain incompetent and secondly, where is the money to actualise those programmes?" asks Andati. Sources within government told The Sunday Standard that relations between Kenya and China, the biggest source of bilateral funding in the past, has been testy. Andati agrees with that proposition, noting that the president went to China came back almost empty-handed from the recent China Road and Belt (BRI) meeting that was held in Beijing. "Have you heard them talking about the China visit, and yet they were supposed to get money to complete projects started by President Kenyatta which have stalled, including the extension of the Standard Gauge Railway to Uganda?" Andati asks. He thinks the Chinese could be reluctant to continue giving monetary support in a situation of declining ability to pay. President William Ruto. [PCS] It has also been argued that relations between the two countries became frosty because Kenya Kwanza thinks the Asian economic giant supported Raila Odinga's Azimio coalition in the last election. It is also not lost on China that President Ruto has been dealing with the West since assuming office. Andati contends that the West has no money to give and Kenya will continue to depend on the little coming its way from the IMF and the World Bank, which come with a lot of tough lending conditions that will only serve to further erode the government's ratings amongst the people. On the positive side, the president will point at the Hustler Fund, which has already been implemented, and the 50,000 teachers hired, although critics say a majority of them are interns. The latest hiring of tutors, however, also faced credibility challenges after Members of Parliament were seen walking around with recruitment forms which they dished out to their supporters. Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka stunned viewers on national television when he revealed that the MPs were shamelessly moving round with the recruitment forms. "One MP gave me two forms. They are shamelessly going round with them, dishing out to friends and relatives," said Onyonka. Taxes backfire Andati regrets that politicians have now taken over the role of the Teachers Service Commission, creating more pain to job seekers as the cost of power, fuel, water and even parking fees keep rising. The burden of additional levies is not only about the national government increasing taxation, because also county governments raising fees indiscriminately. Nairobi Senator Johnson Sakaja has increased charges for stalls, consequently pushing hawkers out of town while in places like Burma market, leading to bitter protests. From next week, parking fees in the capital for ordinary motorists will increase from Sh200 to Sh300 while those for pick-up vehicles will rise to Sh500. "The mistake they are making is to think that getting more money is through additional taxation, yet in the last quarter they fell short of the revenue targets by Sh79 billion, with fuel consumption going down by Sh1 billion last month as people leave their vehicles at home," says Andati. Prof Munene sums up with the observation that the President is expected to adjust his sails during the coming year because if he fails to do so, then most of his programmes will be ill-fated.

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