It will be hard for Raila to rally Luo Nyanza behind him in 2027

Azimio la Umoja leader Raila Odinga at his Karen home in April 2021. [Emmanuel Wanson, Standard]

Talk of Raila Odinga’s time being over in politics has been a recurrent theme since 2013. At some point, he attempted to make lemonade of such talks by embracing the ‘risasi ni moja’ slogan. He attempted to whip up the emotions of his support base by claiming he had only a single bullet left in his political magazine. This was a call to his supporters to turn out in large numbers and vote for him, but as fate would have it, that election ended in controversy, at the Supreme Court and with the now famous phrase, "We shall respect, but do not agree’’.

After a long, chequered political career, one thing that remains uncontested is Baba’s ability to self-reengineer. It will be interesting to see how he plays his cards between now and 2027. 

As the national dialogue runs its course, his supporters are still deeply divided. The question is, will Raila openly work with the government "in the interest of the country"?

He will be damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t. If he works with the government, it will be said that all the ruckus that he kicked up was merely aimed at getting a slice of the government. This may serve to isolate him from his support base never to recover again. If he chooses to be outside government for the next five years, a couple of things will certainly play out. If the government places its finger on the fundamentals of the economy, gets its communication shop in order and reins in on wastage and corruption, the president will have an easy time seeking re-election. But all that is dependent on what "ifs". One of such ifs will be the Raila factor and how it may pan out.

A candidate Raila in 2027 would not excite the base enough to cause the incumbent much worry. His Luo Nyanza backyard would need serious convincing to line up behind Jakom to a man. Don’t get me wrong, Baba would still command a sizeable chunk of the vote, but unlike any other election before, he will have to contend with a massive revolt in Luo Nyanza. An increasing number of voters are unable to place their faith in Baba anymore because his bids have always had very predictable patterns. As things stand, candidate Raila would have a hard time directing his own campaign. But the usual forces that have benefitted when he runs, may insist that he vies, then run a shambolic campaign, make a kill and then abandon Baba as they have always done.

If Baba does not run, it will be an interesting election because the Luo Nyanza constituency will ask itself, "where do we go from here?’’

This will officially kick off the Raila succession battle. In whose hands would the Luo interest be most secure? The answer will be dependent on the candidates for president in 2027. Top of three is the president who is ahead of the pack due to the advantage of incumbency. Kalonzo Musyoka is at number two being the most visible leader in the Azimio-fold and then our own Ross Perot, Jimmy Wanjigi.

The president would take advantage of his long association with Luo Nyanza, from the days of merger to the days of Orange-Banana referendum to the days of the grand coalition government before the fallout. The president's ability to connect with people will come in handy. I watched the body language of Siaya Governor around the president last week and saw two gentlemen who would have no problem doing business.

As for Kalonzo, his candidature would only excite the lake if he were to have a Luo deputy. But the question is, who can this be? Long are the days when Luos were shepherded into a political shop without clearly telling them what was in it for them.

Enter Jimmy Wanjigi. Apart from his failed attempt to get back at UhuRuto in 2017 through Raila, he has no political muscles that would make Luo Nyanza want to rally behind the billionaire businessman turned politician.

Mr Mwaga is Convenor, Inter Parties Youth Forum