Unending political season: Call for sobriety from Ruto and Raila

Residents of Kisumu participate in the nationwide mass action called by Azimio leader Raila Odinga over high cost of living. [Collins Oduor, Standard]

Kenya's never-ending political campaigning that has gripped the country since 2003 has had a negative economic impact on country and the current situation threatens to implode amid a building stand-off.

The political bickering after every presidential elections has instead benefitted regional economies like Ethiopia and Tanzania, which until recently were seen to be less volatile.

The trend of continuous rejection of presidential election results by the opposition after 2007 when President Mwai Kibaki's PNU party defeated Raila Odinga's ODM in very controversial circumstances has afflicted the country.

The two leaders had earlier fallen out in 2004 barely a year after they teamed with other opposition leaders under Narc to remove independence party Kanu from power.

"We must find a way to make our elections conclusive and stop this cycle of campaigning that creates fear among foreigners interested in long term investments," says Prof Gitile Naituli.

The leadership and management lecturer at Multi-Media University cautions that "money does not like insecurity" that is why countries like Haiti are forever regressing and investors are also leaving Kenya.

He argued that the opposite happens where those in government and the opposition talk to each other especially on issues they don't agree on for the betterment of the country.

Naituli cautions politicians against taking Kenyans for granted through their grandstanding and chest thumping instead of promoting a calm business environment in the country.

"To avoid conflict in cases where we have closely contested elections like in 2022, we should encourage give and take, sometimes to avoid conflict or stress because these leaders are all here whether they like it or not," advises Naituli.

Political temperatures are rising in the country with the opposition dressing in military fatigues gearing for combat, same to the Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki who is warning them of dire consequences.

Prof Amukoa Anangwe thinks that politics in the country will only cool down after Raila either retires from politics or exits the stage in whatever manner because he has the stamina to run around. He says endless campaigns have become an integral part of Kenya's political culture unlike Tanzania where politics is never a do or die affair even during the election week.

"Unfortunately in Kenya it has evolved since 2002 but in Tanzania people just go about their business quietly, sometimes rival parties campaign next to each other without problems," says Anangwe.

He agrees that the campaign cycle is also fueled by rejection of results and contestation over reconstitution of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) after each election.

The political scientist however thinks the bickering has had very little impact on successive governments since 2003 because they have developed a thick skin and largely weathered the storm

"Here, noises by the opposition continue but government programmes, policies and agenda also move on because the economy has gotten used to politics unlike in developed countries where politics constitutes business environment," says Anangwe.

He argues that local businessmen also learned to navigate by investing their support on both sides to enable them do business and get tenders from whichever side wins.

But Prof Naituli advises that nothing short of making drastic changes in the recruitment of IEBC commissioners can save the situation in the country.

"Their independence will only be guaranteed and protected when commissioners are recruited by a body similar to the Judicial Service Commission," he says.

Politicians should play no role in the process, so that once approved by the commission, the president's mandate is only limited to appending signature of approval. The current system creates room for politicians to populate the commission with bootlickers who cannot only expose the country to ridicule but also generate conflict that can lead to civil strife.

The current fallout has created a very tricky situation the country finds itself in because President Ruto is now happy with how he constituted the IEBC nomination panel, yet MPs allied to him opposed it during President Uhuru Kenyatta - Raila's handshake time.

That process selected the four commissioners now famously known as 'The Cherera Four' who some Jubilee MPs mostly from Rift Valley opposed claiming the process was not all inclusive.

They have since been sent packing for rejecting Ruto's win after a tribunal determined they erred by trying to interfere with the tallying process.

And now, the pro-Ruto see no problem because they are in government, yet Raila and his allies continue building what is going to be one of the ugliest confrontations unless reason somehow prevails along the way.

Lawyer Stanislas Murunga thinks it is all about political interests and that is why the Azimio side now wants a process that is more open and inclusive because they fear President Ruto will have leverage on who becomes IEBC chairman and the commissioners.

And because Azimio knows they control 50 per cent of the 2022 presidential vote, they are determined to create a perception that Ruto is plotting to rig the 2027 elections, even as they continue contesting his victory.

Murunga also argues that the IEBC selection process should be devoid of heavy involvement by the political class otherwise a process similar to the 1997 Inter-Parties Parliamentary Group process created by President Moi will always be the solution.

As things stand, President Ruto has bullishly said there is no room for discussion over the process that is already in full gear while Raila insists that reforms must be driven by all interested parties in the country.

He has suggested that presidential polls be done separately from county levels elections to enhance transparency, efficiency and speed by IEBC in polling, tallying and relaying of results among other reforms.

Pundits have also called on the president who is a symbol of national unity to detach himself from the process, otherwise it will be difficult for Kenyans to perceive the process as non-partisan or neutral.

Prof Peter Kagwanja of Africa Policy Institute argues that it is normal that successive governments have their own views during transition against those of previous regimes while stamping their own vision and agenda.

He however says although new governments always have their own perspective of the country and its future, it is more complicated when a country has a competitive election like the one Kenya had in 2022.

"It will always leave rancor, anger and hate but the maturity of the nation is how you handle it because there are cases where nations have handled it fairly well," says Kagwanja.

Where well managed, such processes give birth of immunity of presidents and they cannot therefore fear that they could be victimised by incoming regimes as is the case in the US where former presidents enjoy their retirement without provocation and harm.

Prof Kagwanja explains that nobody can go after Barack Obama or Bill Clinton because they are bound by the ideals of citizenship and as former presidents they cannot behave in a manner that can threaten the sitting government.

The maturity of a democracy is how the old relates with the new and the continuity in governance but that lacks in Kenya where name calling and threats against Uhuru by those in power is now routine.

Prof Kagwanja cautions that it does not augur for a country when it appears to be rightly or wrongly victimising the old, although it is also a lesson for those in office not to be over-enthusiastic against their opponents.

Despite the wise counsel, the atmosphere is getting more charged as Raila uses the right to free speech and assembly, while also rallying supporters to criticise and petition the government over the high cost of living.

He claims independent institutions in the country, among them the Judiciary and the Office of Director of Prosecutions, have been politicised and are, therefore, unable to do their jobs and functions properly.

It has however been argued that it is individuals who occupy some independent offices who have been compromised through the process of their recruitment because they owe allegiance to their benefactors upon assuming office.

"Why do what is illegal when these individuals have security of tenure, meaning they can only respond to queries from Parliament directly?" asks lawyer Murunga.

He however also blames parliamentarians who are compromised not to properly carry out oversight roles because of ethnicity and boot licking of those in power, party affiliation and financial favours.

Speaking on KTN News Dr Hassan Khannenje called for tolerance while arguing that alleged crimes were committed by the past administrations and they will be made by the current and future governments.

Another analyst Dr Martin Oloo thinks there will be so much rebellion against the current regime because it took power through defiance of President Uhuru and his government.

He says President Ruto rebelled when he was inside government, opposed many things and proceeded to acquire power and should therefore not expect to rule without rebellion because rebellion begets rebellion.

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