Manyora: William Ruto's ship is sinking and nobody can rescue it ahead of August poll

DP William Ruto instructs Sabatia candidates Clement Sloya and Ayodi Emmanuel after their supporters clashed during a rally at Mbale market in Vihiga County on July 13, 2022. [Benjamin Sakwa, Standard]

Things are falling apart for the Kenya Kwanza Alliance under Deputy President William Ruto. The once overconfident and boisterous DP is now increasingly paranoid.

A few months ago, Ruto, like Amalinze the cat in Chinua Achebe’s Things Fall Apart, was bursting with confidence and looking forward to the next match. He brushed off any individual and discussion highlighting the shortcomings of the electoral commission. He shouted from the top of his cars: “Learn to accept election results and move on.”

He claimed that even if the IEBC was given to Oburu Odinga, the brother of his opponent Raila Odinga, he would still deliver a resounding victory. How? “Because I have God and the people on my side.”

But truth be told, when he was making these hubristic claims he was the most popular presidential candidate. However, he forgot a fundamental rule as advised by Robert Greene. That in victory, know when to stop. Greene notes in his masterpiece, The 48 Laws of Power, that there is nothing more intoxicating than victory.

Ruto became drunk on his own success. And the popularity meant to aid his walk to State House became his greatest undoing. Recently, Ruto has turned into a crybaby not only disheartened that his ‘toy’ has been taken away but also paranoid of the next actions.

In four years, Ruto has painted a picture, for the public, that the presidency is his for the taking come rain, come sunshine. So we understand his paranoia when the public mood now seems to suggest otherwise. Be that as it may, we hold the view that, for Ruto, the biggest challenge wouldn’t be losing the August polls but dealing with the reality of Mt Kenya betrayal.

Having supported one of their own, President Uhuru Kenyatta, in 2013 and 2017, Ruto expected a quid pro quo. Ruto was confident of at least 85 per cent support from the mountain. He cut down to size any leader from the region aspiring to ‘replace’ him as the Mutongoria — leader. But because politics is dynamic and people of the mountain are said to be best at it, Ruto must now be shuddering to imagine that the mountain has slipped away. Further, he is faced with voter apathy in Mt Kenya. This means other than sharing a sizable percentage of his votes with Raila, thanks to Martha Karua effect, he won’t inspire a heavy turnout.

Second, is the fact that majority of the youth will have less say in the August contest. A KPMG audit on the IEBC register of voters reveals that the youth, aged 18 – 34, make up only 39.84 per cent of voters although they constitute about 29 per cent of the population. This means Ruto failed to inspire more than five million youth to register as voters despite the fact that they form majority of his support base.

Third, Ruto has been increasingly paranoid about ability of the IEBC to deliver free and fair elections. This is uncharacteristic of the man who boasted people and God on his side.

Further, Ruto has painted Raila as a ‘project’ of the status quo notwithstanding the fact that he is in the status quo. One might be forgiven to claim Ruto developed a split personality since his relationship with President Kenyatta went south.

On one hand, Ruto claims he is the deputy president, but on the other, he claims he was kicked out of government through the handshake. On one hand, he claims IEBC is incorruptible and that their win in 2013 and 2017 was not influenced, but on the other hand, he claims the State has an invisible hand in elections.

This paranoia has not only been directed towards the IEBC but also the media. Ruto has claimed that the media is biased and in ‘support’ of Raila’s candidature. The Media Council of Kenya has said indeed, Raila, between April and June, received 61.2 per cent coverage compared to Ruto who got 38.2 per cent coverage. The council has, however, not told Kenyans the percentages Ruto and Raila received in past four years.

Ruto is a creation of the media. The media gave life to his proposals by inviting discussions on effect of the then dynasty versus hustler narrative. And now that the media is equally interested in the Raila-Karua ticket, Ruto has become envious. This explains why the centre cannot hold for Ruto. This brings into mind the epic disaster that was titanic. A ship that, according to its captain Edward John Smith, ‘not even God could sink it’.