Ruto's missteps and the fate of Kenyan coalitions

Political mergers and coalitions generally do not last; they disintegrate whether or not they attain their objectives. In political processes involving multiple factions each jostling for positions, political fragmentation is normal. Those thinking of mergers or coalitions do two things. First, they admit their individual weaknesses and then gang up supposedly to remove this weakness. Second, distrust and likelihood of betrayal are rife as they haggle over acceptable compromises and who the ‘leader’ would be.

This explains the length they go to reach MoUs on what would happen after ‘victory’. They then put up brave campaign faces. It happened in 2002 before Narc removed Kanu from office and in 2012 in Jubilee. The acrimony in Jubilee follows a normal pattern.