How novel coronavirus is changing the world

With most of the world caught up trying to flatten the novel coronavirus curve, not much attention has been given to post-Covid-19 life. The storm will pass, and life must continue, but with a difference. Covid-19 has precipitated a seismic shift and life, as we know it, has changed forever.

Israeli historian, Yuval Noah Harari, talks of decisions that will shape the world for years to come. Speaking of Covid-19, he says: “When choosing between alternatives, we should ask ourselves not only how to overcome the immediate threat, but what kind of world we shall inhabit once the storm passes”. These are some of the changes that obtain.

First, passports have been rendered useless. Because unfettered travel made Covid-19 a global phenomenon, many countries have shut their borders. Presently, the world is closed to all but the most essential travel. This situation may prevail until a global standard of pre-screening travellers and declaring them corona-free is developed. Currently, such a standard doesn’t exist. Scientists say a coronavirus vaccine, that would ensure uniform global certification, is still months or even years away. Consequently, every country will have a nuanced approach to immigration until a universal standard of certification is arrived at.

Second, decisional processes are being hastened especially where the risk of doing nothing is greater. Lockdowns and other laws to contain the pandemic have been mooted and effected in most democratic countries without reference to their parliaments. It is probable that anti-Covid-19 vaccines will be developed and passed as fit for purpose without the customary rigorous testing required by most regulatory authorities.

On the education front, decisions to award certificates, diplomas and degrees are no longer going to be based on time spent in physical classrooms. Nor will qualifications be based solely on examination pass-marks. Online learning has now suddenly been pressed into service with standards that are internationally accepted. The net effect of this is an education without the encumbrances of walls and borders, a boon for parents that spells the dearth of brick and mortar institutions of learning.

However, these quickened processes create the risk of totalitarianism. This especially so where emergency measures may require the suspension of aspects of the Bill of Rights. In Kenya, laws have been gazetted that regulate the number of passengers in a car or that criminalise movement in public spaces without face masks. This is acceptable as long as government is trusted to do the right thing and where it does not appear to undermine fundamental rights and liberties of citizens.

Third, the world is about to experience the uncertainty of what it has always considered wealth. Property prices are tanking and titles can no longer be collateralised with the same ease as before. Despite government’s efforts to reverse the trend, banks in Kenya are still not lending. The Central Bank Rate and the Cash Reserve Ratio have both been lowered by a percentage point to provide additional liquidity for banks to directly support borrowers. This is yet to have the intended effect. Demand for office space is falling. People are coming into the realisation that offices are overrated and that it is entirely possible to offer excellent products and services while working from home.

Internationally, the price of crude oil has fallen to levels last seen a couple of decades ago. This is because of depressed demand from China and other manufacturing countries on account of Covid-19. Without consumption, oil is worthless to society. Even with the eventual resumption of industry, it is doubtful that oil-production will continue to be a symbol of capitalist privilege.

Last but not least, agriculture is now the new gold. With closed borders, countries now have to rely on their own produce for sustenance. The UN has warned that coronavirus measures may cause a global food shortage. It says “protectionist policies by national governments and shortage of workers could see problems start within weeks.

Kazakhstan, Vietnam and Russia have banned exports of wheat flour and rice. Countries that will thrive are those that enhance their production of grain, fruit and vegetable; those that create food value chains and the logistics of moving these to local and international markets. In doing so, they also stem any lockdown-induced social unrest by making use of idle capacity through the resultant labour intensive opportunities that arise.

 

Mr Khafafa is a public policy analyst