Why countries have rejected herd immunity

**Kisii County workers clean roads and buildings on Saturday in ongoing efforts to control the spread of Covid-19.** [ Sammy Omingo, Standard]

As more countries enforce lockdowns to stem the spread of coronavirus, Sweden appears unfazed by the threat posed by the disease.

While the rest of Europe has imposed restrictions on public life and has closed borders and businesses, Sweden has taken a more relaxed approach to the virus.

Unlike its neighbours Denmark, Finland and Norway, Sweden has not closed its borders or its schools. Neither has it closed non-essential businesses or banned gatherings, like the UK and Germany.

Sweden has widely been criticised for what has been termed as its laxity in containing Covid-19. It has disregarded a lockdown imposed other European countries. The Times of Israel, on Sunday, reported that ‘cafes and bars still remain open’ in Sweden.

Other reports from international media such as The Telegraph claim the Scandinavian country appears to be banking on a ‘herd immunity’ policy to combat the virus.

Herd immunity entails exposing a large percentage of the population, directly or through vaccination, to a disease so they can in turn build resistance and stop its spread. It has been used to fight several diseases, including chickenpox and measles.

The World Health Organisation has shunned herd immunity, and remarks from global scientists leave little doubt as to why the global agency has taken this stand.

“First, the intermediate and long-term consequences of coronavirus are not yet known. And second, while some people are not badly affected by the disease, under a herd immunity, they could still pass the virus to elderly people who are at higher risk of dying from it,” said Dr Arindam Basu, an associate professor of Epidemiology and Environmental Health at the University of Canterbury, in an article on theconversation.com.

“The disease spreads quite quickly and should you underestimate its severity, you would end up with very many deaths,” said Dr Marshal Mweu, an epidemiologist at University of Nairobi.

Increased infections and deaths saw Italy impose a lockdown. More European nations followed suit. This included the UK which was forced to abandon its initial plan to employ herd immunity. The Netherlands too had appeared to fancy herd immunity.

But there are reports herd immunity will eventually be the solution to coronavirus. These include an article by the National Geographic dated March 20 and titled: The UK backed off on herd immunity. To beat Covid-19, we’ll ultimately need it.

The article, however, warns of dire consequences owing to the deadly nature of the virus.

“If the risks of Covid-19 were not so high, it would technically be possible to bring about herd immunity by allowing the disease to run rampant through a population. But evidence shows that scenario would lead to high rate of hospitalization and need for critical care, straining health service capacity past its limits,” the article reads in part.

It is estimated that for herd immunity to work, it requires up to 60 per cent of a given population to be infected. This will, as more people gain immunity, water down its effects and stop further transmissions.

This means some 28 million Kenyans, of the 47 million population per the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics 2019 census, would be infected. And with a conservative one per cent fatality rate, going by world trends, 280,000 Kenyans could die if herd immunity is adopted. Such estimates are reportedly what forced the UK to abandon this line of action.

Dr Mweu said the number is too high a price to pay when other solutions remain at our disposal.

“Kenya would not want to go that way. What we have in place; social distancing and proper hygiene; would be optimal to contain the virus. Kenya’s healthcare system would be overwhelmed by widespread infections resulting in more deaths than anticipated,” says Mweu.