Hot numbers: Why census is stirring political heat

Residents of Roysambu in Nairobi line up to vote at Roysambu Primary School during Presidential elections held on Thursday 26 2017. [David Njaaga, Standard]

The upcoming census is already generating political heat given the new population figures will influence subsequent resource allocation, boundary review and inform ethnic alliances for 2022 General Election.  

A pointer to the scheming ahead of the August exercise, is an ongoing campaign to mobilise residents of Mt Kenya living in cosmopolitan towns to register in their rural counties to boost population figures to help secure additional resources.

Population is among factors considered in resource allocation to counties and generally in informing development plans over the next 10 years, which explains the sensitivity around the figures.

Fair process

Some leaders drawn from Western and Eastern regions yesterday stressed the process should be fair, transparent and correct the anomalies captured in the last census that saw some regions exaggerate their figures thereby getting undeserved revenue share to their counties.

“Given that during the last census, results from eight districts were nullified after an aggregated data revealed an extra one million people, there is need to be more vigilant not to bungle the August enumeration,” ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi said, referring to the controversial figures from northern Kenya.

Flawed 2009 census figures irregularly increased the population of Garissa, Mandera and Wajir counties by 708,777, which means the three regions have cumulatively received Sh14.6 billion over the past five years, since population is a factor in the allocations.

Skewed figures

The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) has since revised the population figures - action contested by leaders from the region - and this year’s exercise is closely watched to see what population figures will emerge from the region.

Already, a huge fight is raging over the new revenue sharing formula unveiled by the Commission on Revenue Allocation, with Mandera Governor Ali Roba, who is also the chairperson of Frontier Counties Development Council, protesting it further disadvantages marginalised regions. 

Senate Minority Whip Senator Mutula Kilonzo Jnr (Makueni) cautioned that there must be a clear plan to avoid a repeat of the skewed population figures obtained in the past and used for ulterior purposes.

“Going by the previous census, where figures were cooked, we need a well-thought plan. It is time to weed out people who are in the country illegally and give Kenyans the actual population,” said Mutula.

The suspicions about the population figures is amplified by the mistrust about the technology to be deployed with some MPs citing the bungling of the August 2017 General Election because of technology hiccups.

“The KNBS must ensure the equipment used is not mishandled and that all details are captured to guarantee accuracy,” said Mudavadi.

Malava MP Malulu Injendi claimed preparations for the census were shrouded in mystery.

“We don’t know what tools are at hand to be used during the exercise given the fact that Biometric machines failed Kenyans in the last elections,” said Malulu.

According to the MP, both biometric and manual systems ought to be deployed to ensure no Kenyan is left out.

Nominated MP Geoffrey Osotsi faulted recent amendments to the law which he argued left a vague description of the technology to be deployed.

“The details about the integrated identification management system are scanty. We should be very specific if we want to secure actual data. This can only be done if we use the substantive legal Act to identify the technology to use, for instance, Biometrics using facial recognition, fingers among others,” proposed Osotsi.

The MP also said the National Integrated Identification Management System should be de-linked from the Ministry of Interior, citing risk of data manipulation and security leaks.

The lawmakers now want legislation enacted to amend the Registration of Persons Act to specify the technology to be used in the census.

Osotsi said communities that had exaggerated their population would be exposed if the technology works. 

The politicians also are watchful of the census figures because of the key role the numbers will play in alliance buildings and community mobilisation (ethnic coalitions) ahead of the 2022 elections.

“These figures will also be crucial as they will be used to project the outcome of the 2022 presidential polls, the shareable revenue to counties and boundaries’ reviews,” noted Webuye West MP Dan Wanyama.

Most populous

Osotsi claimed the most populous ethnic group from western Kenya will not accept any outcome placing them below others.

“Tribe should be the main attributes in the census in all the 47 counties. We know we have given birth and have the numbers. The accurate outcome of the exercise will place us in the first position, anything less, we will reject,” Osotsi claimed.

National Assembly Public Accounts Committee chairperson Opiyo Wandayi (Ugunja) warned against people travelling to their rural homes to be counted.

“In ideal situations, people should be counted where they live and work. Anything contrary is ethnic profiling. We are not ready to engage in political shenanigans with this crucial exercise,” said Wandayi.

“We are rallying our people to take this exercise seriously. We have urged our assistant chiefs not to remain by-standers but to also collect their own data, which we will compare with the final data,” added Wanyama.

Pokot South MP David Pkossing added: “We do not want another situation where individuals are going to court to challenge the process upon revelation of the census results.”

During a recent briefing at which it was announced technology would be deployed to speed up release of population figures, Treasury Cabinet Secretary Henry Rotich avoided a question on the cooked figures and instead appealed that the exercise is not politicised.

“Let politicians give KNBS a chance to do its work properly... If you have any reason to challenge the process it must be on the basis of facts,” Rotich said.

There is also criticism of a Government plan to capture diaspora data through local households.

“The head-count of Kenyans in the diaspora will be done through relatives in the country. They (relatives) will be able to discuss their relations’ address, country and the numbers. It is estimated that over three million Kenyans live abroad,” disclosed a source.

Runaway insecurity

Concerns were also raised on runaway insecurity in Kerio Valley, which hosts Marakwet East and Keiyo North constituencies.

The two constituencies were among the 27 regions that did not meet the population criteria in the last exercise where the population threshold stood at less than 133,000 people.

“Insecurity is the main reason our constituency population has gone down. Most citizens have run away from their homes and in this upcoming census the total number might not be achieved,” said Marakwet East MP Kangogo Bowen.

Turkana Senator Malik Ekal said there was suspicion on the process because of lack of information.

“Census is not rocket science. It is not reinventing the wheel,” Wandayi said.